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Iran's nuclear programme and world's energy security

Md Abdul Hakim Aziz
WITH new EU sanction on oil import from Iran the European countries have joined hands with the US in a new round of measures to squeeze Iran to bring her to the negotiating table on Iran's nuclear programme. Though Iran has repeatedly stated that her nuclear programme is aimed at peaceful purpose only to meet her electricity needs which the US and her allies are declining to accept. The EU sanction came at a moment when the "US naval flotilla accompanied by British and French warships is already in the region testing the freedom of passage" in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover the US and Israel are preparing to conduct the largest ever military exercise in February. These events have already raised tension seriously in the region and losing of nerves by either side will invite catastrophe.
Iran has been under continuous US threat and sanction since 1979 after the Iranian revolution. The cat and mouse game between Iran and the US has been continuing for the last 32 years. Successive US administration adopted many strategies to bring Iran under its own grip but so far has not been successful. During the Gulf War between Iran and Iraq, the US actively supported Iraq in terms of moral, material, financial and intelligence support. The US also overtly supported Iraq under Operation Praying Mantis by attacking Iranian armed forces on April 18,1988 within Iranian territorial waters in retaliation to the Iranian mining of the Persian Gulf which caused damage to an American warship subsequently.
But Iraqi invasion of Kuwait had changed the entire matrix of the geo-strategic and geo-economic equation of the US and other global players whose economy largely depended on Gulf oil. US attention then temporarily shifted to Iraq.
Now that the US has accomplished her mission in Iraq and has been able to kill Osama Bin Laden and is preparing for gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is the old foe Iran that has come to the forefront to be dealt with. The US has already encircled Iran by deploying forces in the region for decades and waiting for the opportune moment to take a heavy toll on Iran.
On the other hand, Israel is repeatedly asking the US and her allies to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. But the US would rather want diplomatic initiative and sanction to have effect on Iran. Iran is known to be a long term foe of the US then what makes the US delay attack on Iran?
The US and her allies are not sure what Iran can do in case of an attack by the US and her allies. In case of Iraq, the US was sure about Iraqi capabilities including Iraq not in possession of so called weapons of mass destruction. Iraqi war fighting capabilities were degraded to the lowest level by implementing No-Fly- Zones, employing UN weapon inspectors and continuous economic sanctions over a period of more than 12 years. Before the invasion of Iraq, the US and her allies were in no doubt that Iraq pose no reckonable threat to the invading forces. Besides, acquisition of all Iraqi strategic military and economic targets along the entire length and breadth of the country were completed well before the invasion. Winning of the war was confirmed before the final shot was fired.
Will it be the same in case of Iran? It is certain that the US and her allies want to thrust Iran to a level that it cannot pose any threat to the US and her allies' interest in the region and definitely aiming at maintaining Israeli supremacy in the region as before.
Till now the US and her allies are looking for low cost option. But Israel has become impatient of the US strategy of dealing with Iran. She is continuously demanding US military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Coupled with Israeli threat, Iran's threat to close down the Strait of Hormuz, the vital artery of the flow of Gulf oil, has now become "a flash point of naval clashes."
The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea passage for the export of oil from the Persian Gulf states. This means that closing it will adversely affect other oil exporting (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain) and importing countries including Japan, China, Korea, India and the European countries that heavily depend on the Gulf oil.
Iran exports 20% of its oil to Europe. Iran's consumers in Europe are Greece, Italy and Spain. Greece imports one third of its oil from Iran while Italy and Spain meet up more than 10% of its energy needs from Iran. These countries are amongst the weakest economies in the EU. The targeted EU sanction would then hurt Greece, Spain and Italy's economy if there is any disruption of supplies and increase in price of oil. "And any significant price rise would only benefit Iran's exports elsewhere."
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Iran exported 2.15 million barrel/day in 2010. Iran's major clients are China (20%), Japan (17%), India (16%), Italy (10%) and South Korea (9%) which means that the US needs help from these countries to cause Iran to feel the pinch of sanction.
China is highly critical about the US and EU sanction and unlikely to cooperate. While India has already said that it would not abide by the US sanction. Meanwhile, China is also bolstering her ties with other Gulf States for securing her energy supplies and giving a mixed signal by cutting Iranian crude oil imports. It indicates that China and India will exploit Iran's vulnerability and reap benefit from this situation by striking a better bargain at higher discount rate from Iran. The most obvious sufferer will be the Iranian people.
In the coming months both the belligerents will be passing through the most crucial phase of the situation in the Gulf as both sides are contemplating to conduct largest military exercises in the region namely Exercise Great Prophet and Exercise Austere Challenge. Both sides claim that the exercises will be the largest of all exercises that has ever taken place in the region. Therefore both sides will be ready to contest each other and any mistake on the part of either side will turn the war games into a real war which will be disastrous for the entire world.
Let us hope that the world leaders will act sensibly so that negotiation through peaceful means is given a fair chance.
The writer is a Retired Brigadier General.