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AL’s votes static, BNP’s jump

Swing voters make the difference; govt's popularity suffers jolt, reveals The Daily Star opinion survey on govt's 3-year performance

Inam Ahmed
Three years ago, the Awami League came to power with perhaps the biggest political bang since independence with a four-fifths majority in parliament. Today much of that popularity has waned, reveals The Daily Star opinion survey on the government at the end of its three years in power.
On the other hand, the BNP which somehow limped to the election, suffering its biggest defeat with a mere 29 seats because of unabated misrule, now seems to have recouped much of its lost position.
And if the question of voting came right
now, the AL would still be marginally ahead of the BNP by holding on to its core votes. But the BNP, which lost its ground quite significantly in the last election, has regained votes this time.
In this whole game of gaining votes it is very obvious, even mathematically, that a large section of the swing voters are now opting for the BNP.
The poll, fifth in a series, was conducted on 2,520 respondents in 44 of the 64 districts covering all seven administrative divisions. Designed by The Daily Star, it was conducted by the Centre for Strategic Research.
FIGURES SPEAK
The Daily Star conducted five political surveys including this one. The first one was done 100 days after the current government had come to power. The next four surveys were done one year (January 2010), one and a half years (August 2010), two years (January 2011), and three years after the incumbent government had been formed.
The Daily Star has been asking the question, "Which party you would vote for if an election was held now" for the last three surveys.
As our survey one and a half years ago showed, 41 percent respondents said they would vote for the AL if an election was held right then. One year ago, almost a similar 39 percent said so. This time after three years of the govern -ment, 39.7 percent said they would vote for the AL. This showed the AL has been able to hold its core vote bank steadfastly.
In comparison, only 20 percent said they would vote for the BNP one and a half years ago. One year ago, 22 percent endorsed the BNR
This time, 37 percent said they would vote for the BNP This clearly showed the BNP has regained much of its votes, which it lost in2008election.
Now the question is if the AL retained its core votes at around 40 percent, then how did the BNP make the gain?
The answer lies in the segment of people who did not respond or said "I don't know" to the question of which party they would vote for if an election was held on the day. In the last two polls held at the completion of the government's one and a half years and two years, 25 percent people did not respond. They actually represented the swing voters. This time, this "no response" segment was down to 9 percent. So people who refrained from answering this time were reduced by 16 percent. Mathematically, this 16 percent this time opted to vote for the BNP So the BNP has gained the swing votes.
As the situation now stands, the road is wide open for both the parties to win the next election. Which party will ultimately take the lead will depend on their performance in the next two years.
The survey also revealed
that Sheikh Hasina's popularity as the prime minister has declined in the last one year quite significantly. Last year, 53 percent said they were happy with her performance. This year 39.4 percent said so.
But Khaleda Zia's popularity as the leader of the opposition has remained static at 30 percent.
People's perception about how the country is being governed has also gone through a dramatic change over the pastyear.
More people now think that the country is heading in thewrongdirection.
The survey showed that people are not happy with the way the economy and price inflation are being handled. They are also worried about the law and order situation.
But the respondents were happy with the government's initiatives to improve power supply.
People's perception about corruption has also worsened as 44 percent now think that corruption has increased compared to 31 percent last year.
(For details of the survey, read today's special supplement)