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A challenging year ahead: economists

BSS, Dhaka
Economists see a challenging year ahead as the government will have to confront some internal and external economic risks such as rising inflation, slow export and plummeting remittance growth.
The government should concentrate on controlling spiralling commodity price and strengthen-ing the social safety net programme, they said, adding that it has to match the monetary policy with revenue and import policies, expedite ADP implementation, closely observe international economic trend and cut down its unnecessary expenditures.
Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad, an economist, has suggested the government attach priority to controlling commodity prices as it is an important election pledge of the government.
"For managing the commodity prices, the government must strengthen the Trading Corpora-
tion of Bangladesh. Monetary policy must be adjusted with other policies such as import and revenue to keep the market stable," he added.
Ahmad said the government should carefully handle the abrupt price hike of some commodities such as edible oil.
Defending the Bangladesh Bank's contractionary monetary policy, he said steps should be taken to match other policies such as revenue and import with it to keep the commodity market stable.
He said the government should observe global economic trend for taking preparation to face any possible economic risks. The debt crisis in Europe will have a negative impact on Bangladesh exports, he added.
To reduce borrowing from the banking system, he said the government should expedite implementation of foreign-aided projects and the government should cut its expenditure on less-
priority projects.
"The government should carefully handle imports, discourage imports of luxuries," added.
Abul Barakat, another economist, said restoring stability in the capital market is a challenge for the government. "The government must take steps to stabilise the capital market in the interest of the economy.”
Barakat said the government must cut borrowing from the bank system to ensure credit flow to industries, service sector and trade that will contribute to the GDP growth.
He said depreciation of taka against dollar will push the import costs up that will have a negative impact on the economy.
"The government should carefully handle this issue," he added.
Barakat said war crimes trial apparently has no direct link with the economy but indirectly, it has an impact, he said, adding that with the progress of the trial,
'economy of fundamentalism' would become more active that would have to be carefully monitored.
"All macroeconomic indicators are nowunder pressure," said Dr Zaid Bakht, research director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Research (BIDS).
Exports have stalled while the depreciation of the taka against the dollar has pushed the import cost up, leaving the balance of payments in the negative territory, he said.
Bakht said debt crisis in Europe and crisis in America will impact negatively on the overall exports. So there is very little possibility of increasing the volume of overall exports, he added.
Progress in the implementation of the annual development programme (ADP), especially foreign-aided projects, is slow, he said, adding that inflation is increasing, putting extra pressure on the limited income people.