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India and Afghanistan: Getting ready beyond 2014

The initiative fora resolution to the Afghan conflict needs to come from the region rather than the US. The strategic partnership agreement is a small step to contribute to a self-reliant Afghan state that is independent and confident enough not to become a pawn in a geopolitical game.

Smruti S. Pattanaik
THE signing of the strategic partnership agreement between India and Afghanistan not only underlines India's engagement at multiple levels in Afghanistan but also India's future strategy in the region. To allay any misgiving regarding inking of this agreement, the text refers to the lanuary 4,1950, treaty of friendship to underline the historical nature of such a partnership.
The strategic partnership agreement signed on October 4,2011 deals with four broad subjects: political and security cooperation; trade and economic cooperation; capacity development and education; social, cultural, civil society and people to people relations. To operationalise their vision the two countries have decided to establish a partnership council and separate working groups for each of these issues. This agreement is a reflection of India's resolve to stay engaged in Afghanistan in spite of several deadly attacks on its interests in the past.
India's strategy is built on the following: First, for any Afghanistan government to be a viable sovereign country it needs a government that is supported by all the ethnic groups and, thus, New Delhi has been supportive of an Afghan-led reintegration and reconciliation process.
Second, for a viable state that can pursue independent foreign policy Afghanistan needs an oudet to the outside world. In this context India is engaged in several infrastructure projects including the development of Chabahar port in Iran.
Third, Afghan forces must be combat capable to take the responsibility in the post transition period to deal with the emerging security challenges. Thus, India's decision to train Afghan security forces would be significant.
Fourth, India continues sustainable engagement in terms of providing vocational training, providing medical facilities, and building educational institution, which will help generate goodwill and sustain its presence in the post transition phase.
Fifth, India has pledged to support the capacity building of vital institutions like the executive, judiciary and parliament in Afghanistan and is already training its bureaucracy.
Sixth, it is important to expand scholarships to Afghan students in medical, engineering and management institutes in India, which will help in human resource development in Afghanistan and facilitate socioeconomic transition by helping in capacity building.
Lastly, India would like to be engaged with the regional countries in finding a solution to Afghanistan and in this respect has been supportive of the Afghan government's political and economic initiatives. It shares their apprehensions regarding drugs and extremism in Afghanistan.
India realises the importance of Pakistan in peaceful political transition in Afghanistan. Therefore, rather
than getting into a flurry of activities that involves reconciliation or security it initially restricted itself to economic development and capacity building. This was in spite of Afghanistan's request to train its security forces and have defence cooperation. It was also slow in releasing the money from the $2 billion fund earmarked for development. In fact after the suicide attack on the Indian Embassy, and later the attack on the hotel where the Indian workers were staying, there was some rethinking in New Delhi whether it should stay involved or not.
To allay India's fear regarding security of its investment President Karzai visited India on his way to the Saarc summit in April last year and personally assured the safety of Indian workers, requesting New Delhi not to reduce its engagement. At the same
time India resolved not to be bogged down by terrorist threats. Thus, India not only increased its pledge to $2 billion dollar but also took a firm decision to remain engaged in spite of deteriorating security situation.
Afghanistan has announced that it prefers to talk to Pakistan rather than the Taliban to take the reconciliation and reintegration effort forward after Rabbani's death. In any case, this process was hardly "Afghan led process" and has been carried out secretly by the United States. India realises this and has been pursuing a multi-pronged approach. While it has kept Pakistan bilaterally engaged in talks to address the issue of terrorism it is also in touch with the regional countries through bilateral and multilateral forums.
Pakistan has tried its best to sideline India in Afghanistan. Given Pakistan's close links with the Taliban, the inter-
national community has prevented India from playing any major role. It was sidelined in the London conference and was not even invited to the Istanbul conference.
As the support to Taliban continues and the talks with them remain elusive as before, international frustration is also growing. Kabul's patience is running out It is not surprising that India and Afghanistan finally took steps to forge a strategic partnership that will allow New Delhi to train Afghan security forces to deal with the postwithdrawal situation. The US has acquiesced to India's role in the region in the absence of any constructive help from Pakistan that would facilitate US exit.
The regional countries are concerned about the situation in
Afghanistan and have repeatedly mentioned drug trafficking and extremism as major concerns for them. Yet, there is no concrete proposal to deal with the situation that may arise in the postwithdrawal scenario. Other than issuing statements CSTO and SCO do not have any future plan. Iran is also trying to leverage its bargaining power in Afghanistan. It has engaged India to curtail Pakistan's presence in Afghanistan by allowing it to build an alternative port in Chabahar. New Delhi has built the Zarang Delaram road that connects Afghanistan with Iran.
India, Pakistan and Afghanistan are not engaged at official level to address their mutual concerns. However, unofficially, the three countries have had several dialogues at the track two level. Officially, Pakistan does not recognise any role for India in Afghanistan. While, on the one hand it refuses to engage in talks with India on Afghanistan, it raises several questions regarding India's presence on the other .There is no other way to address Islamabad’s security concerns other than having a frank dialogue on Afghanistan.
The strategic partnership agreement between India and Afghanistan would go a long way in creating a support structure for strengthening civilian administration while cooperating on security issues. An unstable Afghanistan will have several repercussions for regional stability. While it is expected that reconciliation and reintegration would help in formation of an inclusive government, Delhi is aware of the pitfalls if it fails.
A return of a radical regime will have immediate effect on the neighbouring countries and India. Thus, the initiative for a resolution to the Afghan conflict needs to come from the region rather than the US. The strategic partnership agreement is a small step to contribute to a self-reliant Afghan state that is independent and confident enough not to become a pawn in geopolitical game.
The writer is Research Fellow, IDSA, New Delhi.