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WIKILEAKS

Khaleda knew her polls fate

Star Report
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia herself admitted before the proposed January 22, 2007 parliamentary polls that election performance of her four-party alliance would decrease to a great extent in comparison with the 2001 election.
She made the prediction when the then US ambassador Patricia A Butenis met her to discuss prevailing political situation on October 31, 2006, according to US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks on August 30 this year.
Khaleda's rival Sheikh Hasina was happy, in contrast, with BNP's popularity declining, and predicted that the Awami League-led grand alliance would net at least 220 out of 300 seats.
Asked to predict BNP's election performance the next day, Khaleda told Butenis, when the latter met her, that her alliance would win 180-190 seats, compared to the 220 in the immediate past parliament.
This outcome presumed support from the Jatiya Party (JP), “which she said Ershad (JP chairman) has already promised her", the confidential cable sent to Washington on November 2, 2006 said.
In 2001 elections, BNP alone won 193 seats out of the 300. The tally stood at 220 after incorporating the seats of its allies including Jamaat-e-Islami and those won by the coalition candidates in by-elections.
“(Khaleda) Zia insisted that, opposition assertions aside, her party has strong support from the Hindu community," Butenis wrote in the cable.
An active move was on for a few months then to convince Ershad to join the BNP-led alliance. But the former dictator had yet to give any decision in that regard.
In an apparent sign of development in the negotiation, two long-standing corruption charges against former president Ershad were dropped on August 24 after the investigating officer had told the court the charges could not be proven.
"Ershad has stated that he will join the ruling coalition if all corruption charges against him are satisfactorily resolved," Butenis wrote in a cable sent to Washington on August 24, 2006.
The former military ruler, in parallel, was continuing talks with the leaders of the AL-led electoral alliance to secure a better promise of accommodation in the new government after the polls.
After a “bargain”, Ershad tied knots with Hasina frustrating Khaleda in early November of 2006.
With the elections scheduled for January 22 cancelled, the ninth parliamentary polls were held finally on December 29, 2008 after a series of drama, which included state of emergency, crackdown on politicians, detention of Khaleda and Hasina.
The result brought shock for BNP and its allies and surprising delight for AL-led coalition: the AL alone bagged 230 seats while the number went up to 262 incorporating the seats of its allies, and BNP-led four-party bagged 32 seats that included 29 seats of BNP.