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Are we ready to face it?

A K M Nurun Nabi, PhD
The world will have 7 billion people by October 2011! Wow! What a tremendous feat the human race has achieved! In just about slightly more than 200 years (from 1804 to 2011 to be specific), the world's population grew from one billion to 7 billion. More interestingly, at the beginning of the twentieth century, the world had 1.6 billion people, whereas at the closing of it, the figure was just reversed to 6.1 billion. Currently, about 83 million people are being added to its population per year, and most of it is happening in less developed countries (LDCs).
Bangladesh experienced a slow population growth until the end of World War II. However, the growth rate took a galloping pace after that. The country, with an estimated population of over 160 million, is one of the most densely populated nations in the world. More than 1100 people live in one square kilometer area. Each year, the population increases by 1.8 to 2.0 million.
The country is still a low income one with substantial poverty, inequality and deprivation. An estimated 60 million people are living below the poverty line. Most of the labour force is engaged in informal low productivity and low income jobs.
The country is blessed with a young population. For Bangladesh, this is a demographic bonus. This demographic bonus could bring a huge dividend for us, if this raw capital is converted into circulatory capital.
Ayoung population can also be curse, demographically. Currently, the largest proportion of young population ever is waiting to enter the reproductive age. The estimated number of women of reproductive age is 40.8 percent and will
increase to about 48 percent by2021.
The current growth rate of the elderly population supersedes the annual population growth rate. Due to declines in the fertility and mortality rates, numbers of elderly people will increase six-fold by mid-century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses.
Bangladesh is currently experiencing 'demographic transition' as a result of decline in fertility. However, a wide range of regional variations exist in the patterns. Khulna and Rajshahi divisions have the lowest TFR (2.0 and 2.4, respectively) and highest CPR (63 and 66, respectively). Sylhet and Chittagong have the highest TFR (3.7 and 3.2, respectively) and lowest CPR (32 and 44, respectively). Adolescents, poorest, least educated and slum dwellers have highest TFR and lowest CPR. Contraceptive discontinuation rate is very high (56%) and varies by methods. Unmet need for FP methods is 17%.
Women still lag a lot behind men in educational attainment, literacy, employment, earnings and control over cash, freedom of movement, autonomy and status. Women in Bangladesh have little say over household decisionmaking.
Although maternal mortality ratio (MMR) has declined from 322 to 194/100,000 live births between BMMS 2001 to BMMS 2010, respectively, 7332 mothers die every year. No decline in malignancies, which now is the single most important cause of deaths among women in the reproductive ages, has occurred. Hemorrhage and eclampsia, despite impressive declines, are responsible for more than half of all maternal deaths.
Women with at least a secondary
complete education are 6 times more likely to use facilities for delivery compared to women with no education. Women in the richest quintile are three times more likely to seek facility care for complications compared to those in the poorest quintile.
Although overall poverty has declined but a wide variations are there between geographic and socio-economic and demographic characteristics. While rapid growth has helped lower poverty in Bangladesh, there is evidence of growing income inequality.
Growth experiences in Bangladesh and elsewhere demonstrates both a tendency towards urbanization as well as uneven regional growth. The imbalanced growth of Dhaka shows both a large concentration of wealth and income as well as unsustainable pressure on Dhaka's already fragile infrastructure and available land.
The growing evidence of climate change suggests serious deleterious effects in near future, unless effectively contained. It is predicted by international agencies that Bangladesh will be adversely affected by climate change. A rise in the sea level, leading to coastal submergence (i.e. 17 % of Bangladesh) would cause large-scale displacement of people.
On the backdrop of the global canvas, what prognosis could be suggested for Bangladesh to meet the need for people's welfare? Are we ready to face the challenges those lie ahead? To face the population challenges, we need to change our perspective about the issue and take it as a central point for national development.
The writer is Professor and Project Director, Department of Population Sciences, University of Dhaka.