Unfolding events will prove whether Thaksin is in a tactical retreat to mount a new offensive or whether he is genuinely showing remorse in order to win forgiveness and get "his life back."

A number of positive signs have emerged in recent weeks, giving hope the country can overcome its predicament, although the situation remains fragile and precarious.

Depending on how key players responsible for the political polarisation can tone down their egocentricity for the sake of the greater good next year, when there will be a general election and celebrations for His Majesty's auspicious 84th birthday, a fresh start could be ushered in for the country.

Since the end of the red-shirt rally in May, fugitive expremier Thaksin Shinawatra has been putting out feelers to signal he is a changed man. He is keeping a low profile. Gone is his tough rhetoric promoting the redshirts' struggle. He has cut down on his "tweets". And his central message has turned passive in a bid to distance himself from violence in lieu of the aggressive remarks against his opponents.

With Thaksin turning 61 last month, his friends and relatives, particularly his sister Yaowapha and her husband Somchai Wongsawat, have renewed their efforts to seek out a sympathetic ear for his legal wrangling.

To the powers-that-be, Yaowapha has delivered an explicit message that her brother wants to come home. But does this signal a willingness by Thaksin to be humble and play by the rules, instead of seeing himself as bigger than the game?

Should Thaksin decide to comply with the law and abide by judicial decisions, he may find his problems resolved in a speedy manner. The king will reach his seventh cycle and this may be a good opportunity for the former PM to bury the hatchet. It should not escape Thaksin's attention that the royal birthday is an occasion for pardon reviews.

The vetting of the red-shirt petition on his behalf for a royal pardon is expected to be completed later this year.

Last week, the Appeals Court freed red-shirt leader Veera Musigapong on 6-million-baht ($186,000) bail, pending his trial for terrorism. The move is seen as a shift from confrontation to accommodation between the authorities and the red shirts.

Next week, the Supreme Court will cast a crucial vote to decide whether to launch an appellate review into the verdict to seize 46 billion baht ($1.42 billion) in assets from Thaksin and his family in February. If Thaksin opts to repent in order spend his retirement at home, then it is not far-fetched that problems previously seen as insurmountable will start unravelling.

Fugitive red-shirt leader Jakrapob Penkair made a frank assessment that Thaksin was pondering his next steps focusing on his future rather than the red-shirt movement.

In an interview aired by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on Saturday, Jakrapob admitted that while Thaksin would remain an icon of the movement, he was reflecting on his involvement.

"I think that he is re-evaluating whether or not it is a fight worth fighting," he said.

Though conceding that weapons were found among the reds, Thaksin denied condoning or instigating violence.

Jakrapob said organisers of the red-shirt protest had a group of advisers and violence erupted not because of advice they were given but the apparently poor organisation of the rally.

In contrast to denials by other leaders like Jatuporn Promphan and Natthawut Saikua, Jakrapob admitted that some protesters were armed, although he insisted the people with no links to the reds were responsible for the "unrest."

He also insisted that with or without Thaksin, the reds would remain a viable movement due to domestic and international support. He said the reds would get financial backing from international donations.

Jakrapob is the first to step out and claim that Thaksin is having second thoughts about his links with the reds.

Unfolding events will prove whether Thaksin is in a tactical retreat to mount a new offensive or whether he is genuinely showing remorse in order to win forgiveness and get "his life back."

©The Nation (Thailand). All rights reserved. Reprinted by arrangement with Asia News Network.