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Passing the baton

Moazzem Hossain
FORMER president, H M Ershad, put forward some of his thoughts on the issue of future stewardship of his party (JP) in this column on June 15. By all means, this has been an encouraging move on the part of the JP leader. This could be even a turning point and a catalyst for all other political entities, large or small.
The former president realises that he is 80 now, and that this is the prime time for passing the baton. In his piece, he mentioned all the achievements of his nine-year reign. While one would not disagree with some of his claims on development initiatives, the dark side of his regime, however, was not mentioned.
This write-up, however, does not deal with the pluses or minuses of Ershad's regime, but with the future political landscape if and when the former president relinquishes his position.
Examination of the future political landscape of Bangladesh is not easy. While politics has been marred by brutality and bloodshed since the liberation war in 1971, the military has been playing a major role in politics since August
1975. In 2006, the military had to intervene in the political process and ran the show from behind for over two years (2006-08), of course, with some legitimate reasons.
In almost 40 years of independence, governments had been formed through military intervention on at least three occasions (led by Generals Zia, Ershad and Mueen), and military and the quasi-military regimes had been in place for almost 20 years. Thus, it is hard to paint the future political landscape of a nation where things changes radically and rapidly.
In the piece on June 15, Ershad has given signals on two fronts — one, the legitimacy of his brother, G.M. Quader, taking over JP leadership and two, his desire to bring further administrative changes by converting all the divisions into provinces.
Let us examine the former and leave the latter for appropriate time in the future. Ershad is concerned that Quader could be put into controversy if the baton was passed to him since Quader is a sibling. Thus, he is now on a mission to establish Quader's legitimacy as future leader to the party and the wider community.
The JP certainly is not a stranger to the
nation's politics after democracy was restored through Ershad's in 1990. During Sheikh Hasina's two regimes (1996 and the present), the JP played a major role in helping the AL leader to form the government.
JP contributed significantly to the victory in the 2008 election, being a member of the AL-led grand alliance. If one takes Khondaker Mosharref's (a top ranking leader ofBNP) defeat at the hands of the AL candidate as an example, it was the JP voters who played a decisive role in defeating him. One can find similar examples where the BNP-led alliance had been defeated due to the IP's decisive role in the grand coalition.
Today, while the AL is regarded as the top and the BNP its closest rival in electoral terms, the JP certainly remains as a third force. There is a possibility that with a new leader at the helm, this party will remain as a formidable force in the future. The present JP structure under Ershad is divided into factions because of the absence of democratic practice in the party. No one has the courage to object to or go against the opinion of the former president. This will certainly change under the newleadership.
If Quader holds the position, it appears that he has the mindset, teaching and capacity to move forward by establishing democratic practices at party level, which, if it happens, will act as the catalyst for the future political landscape of this nation. The discussion about the future political landscape will not be complete if one does not touch on the AL's and BNP's role in shaping it. Let us take the opposition first.
After the defeat of the BNP-led alliance in 2008, the party has been struggling to reestablish its credibility. The opposition has failed so far to act appropriately as an alternate government. It is going for a complete nationwide shutdown on June 27. Certainly, under the present environment this strategy will not work.
Unlike the incumbent, the opposition has been relying on the old guard who have tainted the party in the past and brought it to its knees in the last election. Last if not the least, Khaleda Zia's image of being an uncompromising leader has been shattered. She failed to bring reforms in the party after the defeat in 2008.
It is known that without Khaleda the future of BNP is bleak, and she is not in a mood to pass the baton before 2021, the golden jubilee year of independence. Unfortunately, it is clear now that the BNP leader is incapable of bringing innovation and change to the future political landscape. It seems the party is putting up with the status quo to avoid new challenges.
Let us see AL's role in bringing change in a political landscape without Ershad. Looking at the AL chief's political direction in recent years,
one certainly observes lots of initiatives and reforms in the party. In this respect, the PM's resolve to bring fundamental changes in three fronts — social, economic and political — is worth mentioning.
How? Introducing social security schemes, initiating mega infrastructure projects and bringing in new blood in the cabinet and the party leadership immediately come to mind. These are changes whose outcomes cannot be seen immediately, however, if implemented as planned, they will bring a sea change in the future socio-economic-political landscape.
AL's future rests on the shoulder of the PM. She is no hurry to pass the baton before she realises the dream of making Bangladesh a middle-income nation by2021. Indeed, this is a great challenge in a world of uncertainty and global warming. Most importantly, the world of "high growth" seems to be a thing of the past, if not over.
It is now clear that due to the global financial crisis (GFC) the developed nations are not in a mood to extend unqualified support to developing economies and, in fact, they are resorting to going backward by taking austerity measures and tax increases. Under this circumstance, export-led growth of developing nations is certainly under huge stress. Look at Bangladesh's export performance over the last one-year.
In this environment, though the current debate involving the government and the civil society on the issue of growth next year is warranted, it is certainly inconclusive and is damaging the credibility of both the parties. They can be even blamed for raising a storm in a teacup.
In an economy where no genuine figures on formal employment are available and when the central agency for collecting statistics has a reputation for cooking production figures, particularly for agriculture, it is hard to rely on any estimates from such an agency to argue any case. Certainly, adopting the growth data generated out of this source (BBS) is unscientific.
Our civil society's role in shaping the future political landscape cannot be underestimated, either. It has a strong base, with the support of reputable international agencies both in terms of capacity building and funding. The nation has seen civil society having a taste of power in caretaker mode over 2006-08. Indeed, it remains to be seen whether there is any direct role for the civil society in shaping the future political landscape as a fourth force after Ershad passes the baton.
Dr. Moazzem Hossain is the author of Democracy’s Roller-Coaster Ride in Bangladesh.