& çâÌæÚUæð´ ·¤è ¥ôÚU Îð¹Ùæ ÁæÚUè ÚU¹ð´ ¥ÍæüÌ ¥ÂÙð ÜÿØ ÂÚU ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´Ð ãæÚU Ù ×æÙð´, €UØô´ç·¤ ·¤æ× ·¤ÚUÙð âð ¥æÂ·¤ô ©gðàØ ·¤è Âýæç# ãôÌè ãñ ¥õÚU ÁèßÙ ·¤æ ¹æÜèÂÙ ÎêÚU ãôÌæ ãñÐ ÖÜð ãè ÁèßÙ ×ð´ ç·¤ÌÙè Öè ·¤çÆÙæ§ü €UØô´ Ù ¥æ°, çÁ™ææâæ ¥õÚU ©ˆâæã ÕÙæ° ÚU¹ð´Ð ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´, ÜÿØ ã×ðàææ ¥æÂ·Ô¤ Âæâ ãôÌð ãñ´ çÁ‹ãð´ ÂæÙð ·Ô¤ çÜ° ÂýØæâ ¥æÂ ·¤Öè Öè àæéM¤ ·¤ÚU â·¤Ìð ãñ´Ð

2014

Mohammad Badrul Ahsan
For those who believe that history repeats itself, here comes a scholarly work that adds prognosis to prediction. Cambridge professor Nicholas Boyle writes in his book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis that the year 2014 is going to set the tone for rest of this century. Nation states will cede place to global governance, and what will make or break the future of the world is going to depend on how American leaders react to the emerging crisis.
The trouble, professor Boyle warns, will start with financial turmoil. Then one thing leading to another, it will turn into a fullblown crisis that can be resolved either way. If mishandled, it could throw the world into chaos. If wisely managed, the rest of the century could see prosperity and growth.
So, the future of the world hangs in the balance, depending on the events of the next four years. Professor Boyle gives an account of the preceding five centuries to make his point. For example, in 1517
Martin Luther nailed his thesis to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism. A century later, 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715.
It was in 1815 that the enlightened Congress of Vienna took place following Napolean's defeat, bringing a century of relative calm and stability across Europe. Who does not know that the First World War broke out in 1914, a catastrophic conflict that claimed millions of lives and ignited the fire of international discords that burned throughout the 20th century!
Then the Cambridge professor gives the punchline of his philosophy of history; the world's understanding of America and America's understanding of itself will be the crux of the century. The recent economic collapse is unlikely to heal. Instead, it could lead to wider breakdown in international relations. What is true for a home is also true for rest of the world. Good leadership will keep both out of danger.
More than sixty years ago, George Orwell had stunned the world with his dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. It was a futuristic work that saw the world in the grip of a totalitarian regime where life would be dominated by perpetual war, pervasive government surveillance, public mind control, and the voiding of citizens' rights. It was an ideological interpretation of history, its course paved by the burgeoning force of human conviction.
But Boyle's work sits on the fence, leaving the outcome in history's hand. Whether it will be a dystopian or utopian world largely hinges on the choice of the American leaders. His best bet is that history repeates itself. What happened for the last five centuries is going to happen again. "If a century is going to have a character it is going to become apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is true of human beings, "he writes.
In the five centuries of his illustration, the cruical years are 18,17,15 and 14, and that he arrived at the 14th year of the 21st century as the turning point is more inference than calculation. He draws parallels between Germany's rise circa 1910 and China, which is similarly squaring up to the modern era's leading superpower, the USA. America will have to come to terms with the rising powers of Asia as they approach parity by 2014.
At this point Boyle claims there could be one of the two likely scenarios. First, there
could be a move towards economic protectionism and political nationalism, sharpening the events between 2014 and 2018 towards a confrontation between the US and China. Second, it could move towards international cooperation.
It may sound iconoclastic when the professor tells us that the world needs a system of "imperial global regulation, if the 21st century is to be one of relative peace." The idea of sovereign nation states, which is an American invention, will have to be replaced with global governance. He does not mince words when he says in whose hands the rein of that governance should be.
The fear is that the effects of a prolonged economic downturn could restore an aggressive, Bush-like figure to the US presidency. Hence, the United States will have to learn how to share with others the world's resources and its own standards of living, which Britain had failed to do in 1914. Boyle's prescription is as pronounced as his prediction. "The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is through a continuation of the pax Americana," he argues.
History repeats itself, which means what has happened will happen again. But it also means what goes up comes down, and the American century might begin afresh or come to an end.
Syed Badrul Ahsan is Editor, Current Affairs, The Daily Star. E-mail: bahsantareq@yahoo.co.uk.