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Australia leadership change a huge election gamble

AFP, Sydney
Australia's ruling Labor Party has taken a huge gamble by unseating the prime minister months before elections, but is banking on a boost in polls from new leader Julia Gillard, analysts say.
Former lawyer Gillard was installed as the country's first woman prime minister yesterday in a bloodless plot hatched by right-wing party powerbrokers worried by predecessor Kevin Rudd's slump in opinion polls.
Once stratospherically popular, Rudd's profile dived in recent months after a series of policy missteps and a damaging fight with the high-profile mining industry over a proposed 40 percent tax on their profits.
But pundits joined the conservative
opposition in warning that the unusual nature of Gillard's ascension painted Labor as a party in crisis, and would leave a stain on its re-election bid.
"The first and major risk is not to do with her, but to do with the impact this has on perceptions of the Labor party," said Rodney Smith, an election expert from the University of Sydney.
"You've got a party that's clearly lost confidence in the direction that it's been pursuing, the leader that took them to the last election. That's got to raise serious questions about whether Labor should be elected next time around."
Opposition leader Tony Abbott said the electorate would not be impressed by Rudd's "ugly assassination" by his own party, condemning it as the mafia-style thuggery of "factional warlords".
"A midnight knock on the door followed by political execution is no way for
an Australian prime minister to be treated," Abbott told parliament.
John Warhurst, a political analyst with the Australian National University, said the switch to Gillard would be a positive for Labor and could prove a "circuitbreaker" on critical issues such as the mining tax.
"She'll have a freshness about her, she'll have a honeymoon period and that's probably going to be good," Warhurst told AFP.
"She's got the advantage of having been in the public eye for a long while as deputy prime minister, but she'll also have the advantage of a short sharp sprint to the (election) and I think that's a plus."
Gillard, once Abbott's weekly sparring partner on breakfast television, could also prove a more formidable foe than her predecessor, Warhurst added.