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Stocks pass dynamic days

Sarwar A Chowdhury
Bangladesh's stock market went through a boisterous year that witnessed some landmark achievements. The listing of Grameenphone tops the list.
Although a bearish trend dominated the market in the first quarter and investors called to mind the 1996debac Ie, the next two quarters were smooth sailing on the government's efforts to keep the market stable.
However gloom presided over the last quarter as investors began losing confidence because of government intervention.
From January 1 to December 27, the benchmark index of Dhaka Stock Exchange went up by 1.668 points, or 59 percent. Grameenphone, which alone added some 700 points in the indices, backed the jump.
Total market capitalisation that wasTk 104.678 crore on January 1.2009 reached Tk 188.173 crore yesterday - an 80 percent jump. As of yesterday, market capitalisation to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio was around 30 percent, which was 18.75 percent on January I.
Prior to the general elections in December 2008, it was anticipated that the market would gain momentum under an elected government. But it took some more time than anticipated.
Fear over the 1996 debacle was the main reason behind the market's bearish trend until early March. The government then entered the scene and assured that the bad time is over.
Finance Minister AMA Muhith sat with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the market regulator, to discuss how investor confidence can be restored.
At one stage, the government directly entered the market through three state-run commercial banks -- Sonali, Janata and Agrani. In March, the three banks began buying shares in bulk, after which the market went bullish and continued the trend during the next two quarters.
The government intervention, however, proved to be a burden in the last quarter.
In a meeting in November, the finance ministry decided to allow new companies to make public offerings with a minimum number of shares equivalent to 40 percent of their paid-up capital.
The ministry7 also took decision to ban direct listing of private companies and allow floatation of new mutual funds in phases.
But these decisions, if implemented, will hinder market growth, as new companies will be discouraged to join the market, which will create a supply crisis.
Leading mobile phone operator Grameenphone (GP) began share trade on November 16 as the largest-ever issue with 135 crore shares worth Tk 10 each.
On debut, GP alone added more than 700 points in the key index of Dhaka Stock Exchange. The GP shares also added more than Tk 20,000 crore to market capitalisation.
The first listed telecom company also emerged as a market mover. It can impact capitalisation if its share price goes up ordown.
If a GP share price falls or rises byTk 1 on a single trading day, the indices declines or increases by 4 points.
Before GP stepped in, banking, non-bank financial institutions and fuel and power sectors were on the forefront.
GP raised Tk 486 crore through initial public offerings (IPO) and anotherTk 486 crore through pre-lPO or private placement.
Mutual fund sector was at the centre stage throughout the year because of a case and its much-awaited verdict, which was given by the Supreme Court in November after more than a year.
The sector witnessed many upheavals surrounding the case. Retail investors even took to the streets several times demanding a solution.
The issue is however still unresolved, as the SEC sought time to appeal against the verdict. But the SEC is yet to go for an appeal, as the commission did not receive a certified copy of the verdict till date.
The verdict allows closed-end mutual funds to issue bonus shares or rights issues that will be subject to approval from the SEC.
Former finance adviser Mirza Azizul Islam said the market, in general, was more matured and vibrant this year. The market got depth with diversified companies like GP
"The year is positive,” said Aziz, who also served as an SEC chairman. He however differed with the recent govern -ment decisions.
The government restrictions on IPOs from new companies and a ban on direct listing of private companies were not right and market friendly, he said.
"A 40 percent share is a huge portion and 1 doubt any company will come to the market by diluting ownership in such a big way.”
“While we are encouraging private sector companies to be listed, the new decision will discourage them," he said.
Many companies, especially the big ones with large paid-up capital, will not come up, he said.
He said the argument for banning the private sector companies' direct listing was that the sponsors' are benefited much with the system. “But the system acts like incentive for private sector entrepreneurs who are not interested to go public with other methods such as IPO,” he said.
State enterprises can be listed directly and the argument is that the government can utilise the fund receiving through offloading shares under direct listing system.
But there is no assurance that the government can use the raised fund properly, Aziz said, questioning: “Why such discrimination between the public and private sector?” sarwar@thedailystar.net