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Bangladesh fights back fallout good

States Goldman Sachs outlook on post-global meltdown

Staff Correspondent
Bangladesh figures in a group of countries that are emerging from the shocks of global economic crisis better than the developed world, US investment bank Goldman Sachs finds in a research.
The research report released on December 4 says Bangladesh has performed "broadly inlinewith expectations".
Also, Bangladesh is one of the 11 countries that have a high potential of becoming a leading economy in the 21st century along with Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs), Goldman Sachs says in the report styled "Long-Term Outlook for the
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BRICs andN-11 Post Crisis".
The other 10 countries that constitute N-11 (Next Eleven) as dubbed by Goldman Sachs are Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey and Vie tn am.
The bank has recently chosen these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth.
Goldman Sachs used macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education as criteria
The N-ll paper is a followup to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging BRIC economies.
"Bangladesh was the only country in the BRIC and N-ll where macro stability components improved. Like others, it also benefited from higher mobile penetration, while political conditions took a step back.' says the Goldman Sachs report.
It is now possible that China will become as big as the US by 2027, and the BRICs as big as the G7 by 2032, while China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and the Philippines appear to be performing best
"Bangladesh, Egypt. Korea, Nigeria, Turkey and Vietnam form a second group of countries that have performed broadly in line with expectations," says the report
On an individual country basis, all of the BRICs and seven of the N-Ii countries--Bangladesh, Egypt. Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Philippines and Vietnam-contributed more to world growth in 2007-2008 than from 2000 to 2006.
Between 2007 and 2009. Mexico. Russia and Turkey saw the deepest downturns in the two groups. These three coun-
tries saw their economies shrink in 2009.
"China. India, Indonesia and Bangladesh experienced only relatively mild slowdowns," the report says.
Stock markets in Mexico, Korea and Bangladesh declined notably less amid the global economic meltdown. Since the rebound in equity markets, some markets have recovered substantially. Brazil and Mexico are almost back to their previous peaks.
Bangladesh has recovered all its losses, says Goldman Sachs, adding that China and Russia have only regained around half of their respective all-time highs.
"Global credit crisis and recession have tested the resilience of our GES (Growth Environment Score)," which is designed to measure the strength of a country's sustain -able growth, Goldman Sachs says.
Brazil. China. Indonesia and even Bangladesh have shown less vulnerability to the crisis.
All the BRIC and N-11 countries, with the exception of Bangladesh, have given back a large share of the gains made in the macro stability category, as a result of higher inflation, rising external debt and deteriorating government deficits. Political conditions have also suffered in some places.
All the countries that rank relatively highly in terms of their GES are expected to recover faster. These include Brazil, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Turkey andVietnam.
"On the other hand, those places where our GES remains significantly below the developing-country average are likely to see a very modest acceleration. Bangladesh, Nigeria and Pakistan reflect this," says the Goldman Sachs report.