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Will stalled Indo-Pak talks resume?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
INDIAN Prime Minister Dr.
Manmohan Sigh has embarked upon an official visit to the United States, where he will have substantive talks with President Barack Obama on a variety of issues, including the regional situation. It is assumed that his talks will cover the current state of the relations between two nuclear-power South Asian rivals - India and Pakistan - as well as the latest developments in the neighbouring problem-ridden Afghanistan.
Evidently, Indo-Pakistan matters will figure prominently in the Manmohan-Obama talks since both sides have high stakes on the issue. The US has enormous interest in its ties with both New Delhi and Islamabad for obvious reasons, and Washington is keen to see improved relations between the two neighbours for its strategic interests.
From the Indian point of view, Singh will, of course, explain his country's difficulties in bettering the bilateral ties.
The prospects of a thaw in the Indo-Pakistan ties, which turned bitter following the Mumbai attacks, had brightened a few months ago, but once again appear uncertain as the acrimony returned -- obviating such prospects.
Consequently, the resumption of the process of normalisation of their relationship seems bleak at the moment unless ground is broken to facilitate the dialogue.
A rare meeting several months ago
between the prime ministers of the two rivals had raised prospects of improvement in the battered ties. They had, on the sidelines of the
non-aligned summit in Egypt, pledged to cooperate with each other in combating terrorism -- and many saw the development as the much-needed accord at the highest level.
New Delhi-Islamabad ties have been badly affected by the terror attack in the Indian commercial capital, Mumbai, last November. India pointed the finger at Pakistan since the attackers came from that country. A joint statement after the meeting in Egypt said that actions against terrorism "should not be linked" with peace talks between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
While the statement raised hopes for early talks between the two sides - the level of which has not been decided --Dr. Singh faced angry protests in Parliament as the opposition charged him with "compromising" on the Indian position on the issue. So far, New Delhi had stated that there would be no dialogue unless Islamabad brought the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack to book.
The main opposition, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and its leader in Parliament Lal Krishna Advani accused the prime minister of giving too many "concessions" to Pakistan by agreeing to talks since Islamabad has not taken actions against the attackers.
Advani even staged a walkout from the House on the issue, clearly forcing
the government to the defensive. Later, Singh appeared to have hardened his stance as he said that talks were unlikely unless Pakistan took action against the Mumbai attackers. Consequently, the possibility of the dialogue suffered setbacks, and the same situation now exists.
The two countries were in the process of normalising their relations while keeping the main dispute, Kashmir, on the backburner. The composite dialogue at various levels -- mainly between the foreign secretaries - did produce good results as they cooperated in various fields to promote ties.
Then came the Mumbai attack that killed 166 persons and the bilateral relationship took a nosedive, as the Indian opposition demanded a strong reaction from New Delhi. However, the
Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (NDA), a rainbow coalition government headed by Singh, preferred diplomacy to BJP's jingoistic call, and sought to calm down the tensions by asking Pakistan to act effectively against the attackers.
One of the surviving attackers, Ajmal Kasab, is facing trial in India on the charge. During the April/May Indian national elections, BJP accused the government of being soft towards Pakistan on the issue while the (UPA) defended its position. The ruling coalition won the polls, and it was concluded that its mature policy was approved by the people who rejected the BJP's tough stand.
The matter was one of the main election issues and, it was again a major issue in the recent Maharastra state
elections since the terrorist incidents had taken place in its capital Mumbai. Congress won the polls there too; indicating that government's policy towards Pakistan has the approval of the people.
Earlier, an informal meeting between Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Indian Premier Singh on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Council meeting in Russia helped in renewing the ties that led to the Singh-Gilani contacts in Egypt. As far as the meeting was concerned, the two sides seemed happy although the onus was mainly on Pakistan as it promised to take measures against the Mumbai offenders.
But things have not improved as New Delhi thinks Islamabad has not taken enough steps against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks. India says militant Pakistan-based Laskar-e-Taiba was behind the attack in Mumbai, and that it has evidence that Pakistan official agencies too were involved in many ways. Not unexpectedly, Islamabad denies the charge, saying state-actors were not involved at all, and the stalemate persists.
Obviously, pressure is mounting on Pakistan for quick action against the attackers of Mumbai, and the government has to move effectively on the issue. The pressure has increased manifold as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently called for such actions from Pakistan. However, she favours greater Indo-Pakistan contacts and joint actions in defeating terrorism in the region.
Needless to say, Washington's key allying combating terror, Pakistan, cannot turn a blind eye to Hillary's comment. But the American top diplomat had a word of praise for Islamabad too as she believed that the government was sincere and was working seriously against the terrorists.
Indo-Pakistan ties are quite complex,
and their topsy-turvy relations definitely have a big bearing on the South Asian region. Political stability and a congenial atmosphere here is largely contingent upon a relatively normal New Delhi-Islamabad relationship. But this is not always the case given the complexity in their ties. It is imperative that the two rivals improve their ties, not only for their own sake, but also for the entire region. ,
Since the onus lies on Pakistan to take on the Mumbai attackers, Islamabad must act decisively on the grave matter. The US want closer Indo-Pakistan ties against terrorism because of the Afghanistan scenario, where the Taleban are refusing to bow down to more than one lakh Nato troops. For Washington, the challenges have increased in recent times as the military commanders are asking for additional 40,000 troops and the Obama administration is likely to take a decision on this matter soon.
Many Democrat leaders, including Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, are against despatch of additional troops. Here, America feels that Indo-Pakistan cooperation can help effectively fight terrorism in the area. Towards that end, President Obama will definitely put pressure on Pakistan to help resume Indo-Pakistan talks by acting quickly against the Mumbai attackers. This will enable New Delhi to resume the dialogue with Islamabad.
It remains to be seen if the stalled talks finally get back on track after Prime Minister Singh's US visit, which is seen as quite important from both the bilateral and the regional points of view, with both sides having heavy stakes on the top-level parleys.
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist and analyst on international issues.
***Towards that end, President Obama will definitely put pressure on Pakistan to help resume Indo-Pakistan talks by acting quickly against the Mumbai attackers. This will enable New Delhi to resume the dialogue with Islamabad.***