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News Analysis

Diplomatic blunders behind Afghan chaos

AFP, Kabul
The 10 weeks of chaos that dogged Afghanistan's tumultuous election were accompanied by a string of diplomatic blunders that ended with the scrapping of a run-off imposed on President Hamid Karzai.
The decision to announce that November 7's run-off would not take place came after UN chief Ban Ki-moon flew to Kabul to persuade the country’s nominally independent election commission not to stage a one-horserace.
Yet less than two weeks earlier, the United Nations was at the forefront of international arm-twisting designed to force Karzai into a second round despite his protestations that he won
fair and square the first time.
"It's been the biggest mistake by the international community in the last eight years," said Nasrullah Stanikzai, an analyst at Kabul University.
"There’s been no coordination between the United States and the Europeans... And they don't have good coordination with the Afghan government."
Karzai was catapulted to power in late 2001 after US-led coalition forces toppled theTaliban.
But warm relations between Washington and Kabul have steadily declined, with Karzai humiliated when he was reluctantly forced to announce his participation in the run-off, flanked by US Senator John Kerry and UN envoy Kai Eide.
But while diplomats managed to persuade Karzai to stand in a run-off, praising his "statesmanship", they failed to nail down the participation of Abdullah Abdullah, runner-up in the first round who quit the contest on Sunday.
There had been expectations that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would fly to Afghanistan over the weekend after a trip to neighbouring Pakistan.
But Clinton never made it to Kabul and was in Abu Dhabi by the time Abdullah's camp was making it clear that their man would not take part.
Asked whether the outcome of a run off with only one candidate would result in a legitimate government, Clinton appeared unfazed by such as prospect, saying such situations were
"not unprecedented" and occur in the United States.
But after the election commission decided to scrap the poll, the US embassy in Kabul said it welcomed the cancellation.
A European diplomat said the pressure on Karzai to compete in the second round was prompted by a desire to make him acknowledge the large-scale fraud that dogged the first round.
"What was important was to make Karzai admit he had not won in the first round," said the diplomat.
However, Karzai was then able to keep the electoral institutions, which oversaw the rigging in August, intact for the second round -- prompting Abdullah io conclude the contest would again be tilted against him.