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August inflation rises 1.2 points

Rejaul Karim Byron
The point-to-point inflation rate increased 1.2 percentage points to 4.69 percent in August, largely fuelled by spirals in the prices of food and non-food items in recent months.
The World Bank yesterday warned that inflationary pressure would mount if the liquidity overhang in the banking system continues and international commodity prices rise.
Government data shows the overall inflation rate increased to 3.46 percent in July -the first month of the current fiscal year to record a significant rise -- from 2.25 percent in June.
Compared to last fiscal year, however, the rate of inflation is still much lower. Last fiscal year, the inflation rate was 10.04 percent in June, and in July it was 10.82 percent, which eased down to 10.11 percent a month later.
In the current fiscal year, the inflation rate of both food and non-food items increased. In food inflation, it was 4.93 percent in August, up from 3.46 percent in July. Non-food inflation rose to 4.54 percent in August from 3.74 percent a month ago.
The rate of inflation is higher in urban areas than in rural areas, according to official data.
The August figures show inflation in urban areas was 5.81 percent, while it was 4.25 percent in rural areas.
In the latest Bangladesh Country Update, the WB referred to inflation as a major risk in economic management.
Senior Economist for WB Zahid Hossain said inflation is still in check but may not remain so in future.
Global food production is already facing uncertainty. As a result -- in many countries --the prices of food items and oil are on the rise.
Food prices on the world market play a major role in inflation in Bangladesh.
Zahid Hossain said there is huge excess liquidity in the banking system. Banks' excess liquidity almost tripled from Tk 13,000 crore in June 2008 to Tk 38,000 crore now.
The inflation rate will probably rise further if the excess liquidity flows into the market by way of credit, the economist said.
In a report, the WB has identified five short-term vulnerabilities and risks, with inflation beingone of them.
"Inflation disproportionately affects the poor, who are the least able to bear the consequences," the report said.