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How prepared are we to face climate-induced calamities?

Md. Asadullah Khan
***As Bangladesh suffers ravages with alarming frequency in consequence of global wanning, it has to have its own disaster preparedness and adaptation plan. The first prerogative, as the prime minister has asserted, is to go for dredging the rivers along with massive tree-planting programme in the whole country, especially in the coastal zones.***
FOR more than 40 years. Earth has been sending out distress signals. We have responded through staging processions on Earth days, holding seminars, passing environmental laws and forging a few international treaties, like in the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janiero. All the while, the decline of the earth's ecosystem has continued unabated, as evidenced by the monsoon storms and severe flashfloods now ravaging the Philippines and Vietnam.
There is hot air aplenty, mostly because of global warming caused by the galloping increase in carbon emissions by uncaring nations, which has severely disrupted weather patterns across the world. As the next UN conference on climate, scheduled to take place in Copenhagen in December, gets underway, the world appears a no better place than it was in at Rio in 1992.
We have been hearing about the environmental problems projected to come to a head toward the middle of this century. But, as one born in 1939, I would surely be dead before 2050. As humans we are in the habit of planning things --proper schooling, property, savings, insurance etc. for our kids. While 1 got obsessed with such thinking. I realised with a jolt; my kids will reach my present age of 70 in say, 2040. And their lives will depend on the state of the world at that
time and not on our decisions about savings, property and insurance. Over the heads of our children now hang other threats from world conditions, different from the threats of 1939-45.
While the risk of nuclear war or terrorist attack haunts us, it is not as acute as what is threatened by nature. The graver problems that could afflict all our children are environmental ones, such as global wanning and land and water degradation.
A historical perspective can help us, because ours is not the first society to face environmental challenges. Many past societies collapsed partly because of their failure to solve problems similar to those we face today - especially problems of deforestation, water management, top soil loss and climate change. The long list of victims includes the Anasazi in the U.S. Southwest, the Maya. Mycenaean Greeks and inhabitants of the Fertile Crescent, the Indus Valley.
Why didn’t those peoples see the problems developing around them and do something to avoid disaster? As President Obama said in the just concluded climate conference in New York: "Our future generation will not forgive us for leaving an impoverished world for them." One explanation is the conflict between short-term interests of those in power and the long-term interests of everybody. America and China do things that enrich themselves in the short run and harm everyone in the long run
Global wanning will also add significantly to Earth's water problems. Already, around 1.4 billion people live in water-stressed areas, a term defined as having less than 1,000 cubic metres of water per person per year. The world's supply of fresh water, already threatened by increasing levels of pollution, is growing so scarce that two-thirds of humanity will suffer severe water stress within 30 years, says a UN report. The situation will not only imperil human health and develop ment on a vast scale, but also the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems on which much of Earth's life depends.
The growing scarcity of water is also hampering agricultural production, while demand for food is rising. A recent study revealed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicated that by 2050 as many as 150 million "environmental refugees” may have fled coastlines vulnerable to rising sea levels, storms or floods, while a sixth of Bangladesh could be permanently lost to sea level rise and land subsidence.
Water shortages may put global food supplies in jeopardy and lead to economic stagnation in many areas, triggering a series of local and regional water crises and even water riots. Racked by land destruction, salinity intrusion, water logging, recurrent floods, storm surges and changes in the course of the rivers, people in the south-western part of Bangladesh are now facing a new set of challenges imposed by global climate change. Many in the region who were dependent on agriculture have either switched over to other profession or are unemployed. With rainfall becoming less than normal in most places, the land has become parched. Most ponds are now bone-dry.
Despite all the odds that have made life in the coastal region miserable, hope is there on the horizon because environmental awareness is growing. Now efforts
are underway to right some of the wrongs in most parts of the world. Unless imme diate adaptation strategy is taken up, the problems facing agriculture will be criti cal in the days to come as growing population, changing climate and deteriorating soil conditions put even more pressure on a badly-strained food supply system.
Hundreds of grassroots organisations in Africa arc taking action to cope with environmental change. Even embattled Somalia has launched a vigorous antidesertification drive that includes a ban on cutting firewood. In Burkina Faso, villagers have responded to dwindling rainfall by building handmade dams and adapting primitive water gathering system.
How will societies respond if, for example, the oceans were to rise 3 to 5 ft over the next century, as scientists have predicted? One option would be to construct levees and dikes. The Netherlands, after all, has flourished more than 12 ft below sea level for hundreds of years. Its newest bulwark is a 5.6 mile dam made up of 131 ft steel blocks that remain open during normal conditions to preserve the tidal flow that feeds the rich local sea life, but can be closed down when rough weather threatens.
Poorer countries like Bangladesh and Maldives have fewer options. Racked by periodic floods, cyclones and storm surges, especially in the coastal zones, Bangladesh cannot simply evacuate the chars in the Ganges Delta or the coastline populations. Resettlement in a land-scarce country involves forbiddingly high cost and expertise. As for the Maldives, situated just 5 ft above sea level, a rumour circulated in 2003 that former President Mamoon Abdul Gayoom made a deal with Australia to take in his 2,70,000 people in 30 years in exchange of fishing rights over Maldives' water. However, Maldivians are not happy about the "international refugee" status. But there is
no such escape route for Bangladesh if Its 40 million coastal people need to be evacuated and settled elsewhere any time in future.
As Bangladesh suffers such ravages with alarming frequency in consequence of global warming, it has to have its own disaster preparedness and adaptation plan. The first prerogative, as the prime minister has asserted, is to go for dredging the rivers along with massive treeplanting programme in the whole country, especially in the coastal zones. Because forests or trees temper climate and capture and store water. Trees store 40% of terrestrial carbon and can slow the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Deforestation in mountains can worsen floods in grasslands or agricultural lands below, as was the case in China. Madagascar and more recently in Chittagong.
However, any type of interference with ecosystems brings in its wake serious catastrophes. That means man-made climate change threatens all coastal
areas, as melting glaciers send more water seaward and the warming and expanding of the oceans cause sea level to rise. The sufferings of the coastal people after the cyclone Sldr and Alia amply demonstrate what sad plight might be in store for us if we fail to adapt ourselves to changed climatic conditions.
Other than agreeing to a mandatory cut of 25% carbon emissions in Copenhagen from the pre-1990 level, the affluent nations who are actually polluters must not only pledge, but put in, funds at the disposal of the affected countries like Bangladesh, Maldives and the Philippines to tackle the aftermath of such disasters on a long term basis. Developed nations of the world must take note of the fact that a society today can't collapse without affecting societies far away. Because of globalisation, the risk we face today is a worldwide collapse, not just a local tragedy.