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ECONOMIC CRISIS

IMF pins hopes on Asian currencies

AFP, Istanbul
Stronger Asian currencies are needed to rebalance global demand, key to a solid recovery from tire economic recession, the chief International Monetary Fund economist said onThursday.
"A sustained recovery will require rebalancing of demand," Olivier Blanchard, research director at the Washington-based IMF, said at a news conference in Istanbul unveiling the fund's semiannual World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
"It's very hard to see how this could happen at the current exchange rates. In general, it is very hard to see how global rebalancing doesn't come without the appreciation of Asian currencies of various degrees according to the country," he said.
The world economy is projected to grow 3.1 percent in 2010, following a 1.4 percent contraction in 2009, according to the WEO, but a sustained recovery faces stiff challenges, among them global imbalances.
Blanchard said demand needed to be adjusted at two margins: from public to private demand and from current account surplus countries to current account deficit countries.
He recalled that the IMF had called for a shift in demand in 2007, urging Americans to save more and Asian countries to save less, a clear reference to China's massive trade surplus with the United States.
Blanchard said the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression and the worst reces-
sion since World War II had helped fix attention on the need to fix demand imbalances.
"Now what has happened, not exactly in the way we dieamed of," he said, is that the US savings rate has increased sharply in the face of recession.
But he suggested that Asia, and
obliquely China, has yet to do its part.
"In a way, half of the adjustment has taken place, at an enormous cost to the world in terms of a large recession in the US and a large recession in the world," the IMF chief economist said.
"We can't stay halfway. We're in
the middle of the river. And we actually have to cross it and do the other half as well. I think that's the fundamental difference between nowand 2007," he said.
In response to a question about why efforts to achieve global rebalancing could be different this time, Blanchard said: "The stakes
are higher. And I think the commitment of the countries is higher.
"The crisis has changed things. We have seen the changes in terms of the decisions of the G20 countries, so I think both the commitment and the need are higher. I think that this time, we have a better chance of succeeding.”