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Meeting the shortfall

A.K.M.A. Quader
What is important here is the appreciation of the prevailing gas crisis by the political leadership, followed by statesman-like stewardship to overcome it effectively. During the past eight months, the concerned agencies have failed miserably to handle the situation, thereby causing immense political damage and economic losses.
MAJOR primary commercial energies used in Bangladesh include natural gas, petroleum products, coal and hydro. 90% of Bangladesh's power generation is tied to indigenous natural gas, and urea production is also based on natural gas. Since 2001, Bangladesh has been unable to meet the demand for natural gas required by the power, fertilizer and industrial sectors and, at the same time, the gap between the generation capacity of electricity and demand has been widening. The situation has been worsening because of inability on the part of the government to act expeditiously. Its dependence on the bureaucracy of the energy sector for guidance, policy, planning and implementation is at the root of today's crisis.
Natural gas is now being produced from 16 out of 23 gas fields. These fields consist of 79 production wells capable of producing 1985 MMSCFD. On January 31, they produced 1811 MMSCF gas plus 6842 bbl condensates. The JOCs share of production was 50.30%.
As of June 2007, the net recoverable
reserve was 13.51 TCF against gas-in-place 28.62 TCF. Today, the net recoverable reserve is estimated to be around 12 TCF. At the current rate of production, with 5% growth in demand, the remaining reserve will last for another 15 years. This sounds alarming; but 1 do not envisage that fertilizer, CNG and captive generation will grow at the same rate, and these three sectors to-day consume around 210 BCF (668 MMSCFD) gas against the total consumption of 600 BCF, that is, 35% of total.
The estimated substitution of petroleum products such as HOBC, MS, HSD and SKO is to the tune of at least 460,000 tons annually due to use of natural gas in CNG vehicles (95 MMSCFD). At S 400 per ton of petroleum product the substituted quantity of petroleum products (460,000 t) would mean a saving of S184 million. No one, including our economists and think-tanks, has asked why a part of this money could not be invested to explore and develop the gas sector?
The captive power plants now in operation, mostly based on gas engines, are less energy efficient when compared with other power generation methods such GTG, STG, or combined cycle. The gas engines consume
at least twice as much gas, when com pared with combined cycle power plants, for each unit of electricity. With the gas being consumed by captive units in the industries, at least 2000 MW power could be generated by combined cycle power plants if those plants could have.been built in the past nine years, as was envisaged. The whole exercise of captive power plants has been an unnecessary financial burden for the industry as well as wasteful use of gas. But this was an evil necessity to overcome power shortage.
To meet the need of gas for power generation and use by the industries, 2 to 3 urea fertilizer plants remain closed from time to time for months year round, causing reduced urea production. This year, 1.6 million tons of urea Will be imported, costing $500 million on the basis of current price of $ 300 per ton FOB. If the urea plants were not forced to suspend production, local production could be six to seven lac tons more.
Today, the gap between demand and production of gas is about 300 MMSCFD. How can we manage the gap and what are options? The sector needs a strong jolt to overcome its hangover to be proactive. It should talk less and concentrate on improving the situation effectively.
Firstly, Petrobangla should evaluate the production testing records of its wells and raise the production of individual wells by 10% to 15% where possible. This is unlikely to affect the reservoir. In fact, during the production testing, gas flows are often maintained at 40% to 50% more than the expected operating flow rate. If this is done, the
wells under Petrobangla, numbering 58, shall add at least 100 MMSCI D gas immediately. It requires only engineering analysis and corrective actions for raising the flow at no extra cost. The gas processing plants in operation can handle additional gas as they are oversized by at least 50 per cent in all cases.
Secondly, Petrobangla should immediately go for adding at least 10 production wells to its gas fields -- Titas, Habigonj, Kailash Tila, Rashidpur, Beanibazar, Sylhet and Fenchugonj --to produce 250-300 MMSCFD. All these wells can be on-stream in less than 12 months. The total cost will be around $100 million, and I understand that funds are available with the gas field companies. These wells are to be completed as one single project for avoiding repetitive biddings for procuring services and supplies. Bapex, with its two rigs, shall be assigned the number of wells that it can drill and complete in the next ten months, and the remaining wells are to be drilled by appointing contractors. If necessary, the lOCs can be asked to assist in this programme. It is established that a produc-tion/development well can be completed in 10-12 weeks time once the drilling rig is in place. Adding additional production wells in each field will help in carrying out the overdue work-over of the existing wells, and this will also augment gas production further.
What is important here is the appreciation of the prevailing gas crisis by the political leadership, followed by statesman-like stewardship to overcome it effectively. During the past eight months, the concerned agencies have failed miserably to handle the situation,
thereby causing immense political damage and economic losses.
It is my humble submission to the prime minister to instruct the concerned persons to get 10 additional production wells com-
pleted in the next ten months; and I would like to see that the crisis is over.
Dr A. K.M A Quader is Professor of Chemical Engineering, BUET