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New problems for Afghanistan?

Zaglui. Ahmed Chowdhury
It seems to be moving somewhat inexorably towards a condition that may create new problems for the country that is already beset with numerous difficulties. Good response to voting and women's participation in all levels are good signs for present-day Afghanistan, but fresh adversities may cause fresh crises for the unfortunate nation.
THE outcome of the August 20 presidential elections is hanging in the balance mainly because of ^ntroversies surrounding the voting. Unofficial and partial results have so far shown that incumbent president Hamid Karzai is ahead of his nearest rival, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, but is short of the required 50 percent of the secured votes. A run-off election will be held between the two top candidates in the French style to decide the ultimate winner, who must garner at least fifty percent of the votes cast.
The whole exercise is now embroiled in uncertainty, but not because none of the candidates has secured the required number of the votes in the first round balloting. The allegations of rigging and massive malpractice have reduced the otherwise important election to a dispute that could potentially further divide the nation and introduce disturbing new elements in Afghanistan’s already volatile scenario.
Fhe presidential elections, the second *mce a sea-change took place in the politi-
cal landscape following the toppling of the Taleban regime in 2001, was billed as a development that was expected to strengthen the democratic edifice of a country whose history of recent decades is replete with extraordinary and sensational developments. The country witnessed presence of foreign troops in large numbers on one hand, and infighting among various groups on the other.
The troops of the former communist giant Soviet Union remained in the country in the eighties to support the leftist Kabul government against Islamic opponents aided by the United States and other western countries. The Soviet troops left the embattled country after ten long years without succeeding in their task, and later the Soviet Union itself incidentally and rather unfortunately disintegrated. "Unfortunately" because its collapse removed the bi polar world character, leaving the (Jnited States as the only super power. The balance of power in the global scale now squarely rests with the United States — often dubbed as the "Mega power."
It was the United States that threw its entire weight behind the Islamic forces
against the Soviet-backed Kabul governments of Hafizullah Amin and Babrak Karmal but, paradoxically, sent troops to Afghanistan several years later to fight broadly the same Islamic forces -- albeit more radical and militant in nature. Certainly, the dispatching of American and other western soldiers to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 was largely seen as justified, and the soldiers still remain in the trouble-tom country. The fight against the religious fundamentalist Taleban constitutes a major problem for peace and stability in that part of the world.
The United States and other democratic powers sought to give Afghanistan at least a semblance of representative rule in place of the chaotic and unstructured pattern of governance that preceded their arrival in the country. In the first presidential polls in 2004, Hamid Karzai was the choice of these countries and he won comfortably. He was expected to win this time too, although not very easily, but the balloting itself has landed into serious trouble owing to allega-tionsofvote rigging and other irregularities.
The United States and other countries who have troops in Afghanistan, and even the United Nations, see these allegations as not entirely baseless even though president Karzai and his supporters are trying to turn a blind eye to these accusations. Abdullah Abdullah, who was foreign minister in Karzai's government earlier, has challenged his rival about the veracity of the progressive results showing Karzai as leading..
Richard Hallbroke, the American special envoy for Afghanistan, and representatives of other donor nations includ-
ing that of the UN, at a recent Paris meeting, have resolved that there is no question of imposing a winner in the Afghan elections. They are also keen to see the run-off elections, if necessary, so that true representatives of the people are in charge of governance in Afghanistan. However, much depends on the developing situation centering the results, which in any case are not expected officially before September 17.
So far, unofficially, more than 50 percent of the votes have been counted and Hamid Karzai has won about 47 percent while his nearest rival Abdullah Abdullah has more than 32 percent. The polls had about forty candidates, including three women, but most of the candidates are little known or even unknown to most voters. Anyway, even if this trend continues, regardless of acceptability, it is unlikely that Karzai will be the outright winner - - avoiding a second round. However, the case is not that simple either as other complexities are involved in the affair.
Abdullah Abdullah is an experienced person, familiar with the nitty gritty of Afghan politics and characteristics as he was involved in different crucial phases. He was active during the Soviet-influenced period, being close to legendary guerrilla commander Shah Ahmad Mosood, who later also fought theradicalTalebans.
Abdullah is also known in different countries, and widely seen as largely successful in his job. He has highlighted dur $ ing the campaign the weaknesses of Karzai 5 and his government, including massive
corruption engulfing the administration, misuse of huge money that poured into the country and failure to contain the Talebans, which has necessitated the increase of the foreign troops (now totaling more than one lakh). Abdullah is not ready to take things lying down and remains virulently critical of the fairness of the balloting. He is Tajik from the south while Karzai is from the north - with influence among the Pasthuns. Their rivalry centering the elections has also opened the undesirable possibility of tensions between the south and the north.
Western nations are aware of the difficulties that are being spawned by the presidential elections and they are also keen to uphold the democratic values of
the voting. While Karzai is preparing to take over the presidency again. Abdullah Abdullah has urged his supporters to remain calm but not to "surrender to the designs" of Karzai and his "cohorts."
This situation was not expected in the post-poll phase. It seems to be moving somewhat inexorably towards a condition that may create new problems for the country that is already beset with numerous difficulties. Good response to voting and women's participation in all levels are good signs for present-day Afghanistan, but fresh adversities may cause fresh crises for the unfortunate nation.
Zaglui Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist and analyst of international affaire