MINISTER for food and disaster management, Dr. Abdur Razzaq, recently disclosed that the government was considering allowing export of rice, both aromatic and non-aromatic, and the final decision on the issue would be taken after observing whether any natural calamity affected aman production. The minister said that, at present, the private sector exports over 150,000 tonnes of rice.
The disclosure came following a meeting on August 30 of the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit chaired by the food and disaster management minister Dr. Abdur Razzaq and attended, among others, by the minister for finance A.M.A. Muhith and the minister for agriculture Matia Chowdhury.
The arguments put forward in favour of exporting rice are; one. the government has a comfortable stock of food grain (rice and wheat) amounting to 12.56 lakh tonnes; two, the coming aman production will meet the target; and third, export of rice will enhance the country's image.
Let's see as to what extent these arguments forexporting rice hold good.
One of the arguments put forward is the
comfortable buffer stock of food grain amounting to 12.56 lakh tonnes at the end of August. The database of the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MOFDM) shows that in August 2002, when the writer was tire food secretary, the government food grain stock stood at 11.64 lakh tonnes. The difference is only 92 thousand tonnes after a period of six years or so.
A good harvest of boro during the last two seasons (177.62 lakh tonnes in 2007-08 and 180.11 lakh tonnes In 2008-09) and a declin -ing trend in the prices of different varieties of rice in international markets have contributed respectively to the augmentation of the government food grain stock to some extent in 2009 and the lowering of prices in the domestic market
A visit to the website of the MOFDM shows that against the total food grain production of274.42 lakh tonnes in 2003-04. the total food grain production, including 10 lakh tonnes of wheat, in 2008-09 stood at 325.18 lakh tonnes. The difference is 50.76 lakh tonnes after a period of five years, when the total population stands at about 150 millions against the total population of 135 millions in 2003-04. A comparison of annual domestic food grain production rate and
annual population growth rate in the last ten years shows that the growth rate of population is higher than the growth rate of food grain production. Thus, the present production of food grain does not give a very rosy' picture in comparison with population growth rale and the total population.
Regarding the meeting of aman production target, it may be said that we are uncertain about natural calamity that may affect aman production. We have seen in 2007 how the countrywide floods and the cyclone Sidr on November 15 in the coastal districts seriously affected aman production. Aman production stood at 96.62 lakh tones only against the target of 130.45 lakh tonnes. Moreover, total food grain production in the country lacks consistency.
Total food grain production in 2000-01, 2001-02, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2005-06 stood at 267. 58 lakh tonnes, 259.05 lakh tonnes, 266.94 lakh tonnes, 274.42 lakh tonnes, 261.33 lakh tonnes and 275.90 lakh tonnes respectively. This shows the inconsistency in the growth of food grain in the country.
The June, 2009 issue of Food Outlook, a biannual publication of FAO, forecasts a modest growth in rice production in Asia in 2009-10 after two years of fast growth. A few • countries, including Bangladesh, "may experience a contraction in rice production, as less attractive market conditions depress plantings."
Quoting the Indian food and agriculture minister Shared Pawar, the Indian media recently reported that production of rice in India may be reduced by IQ million tonnes this year due to drought, compared to last
year's (2008-09) production of 99.15 million tones. Rising price of rice is hitting the common people of India. Reference to India is made because India has traditionally been a bigexpo rterofrice.
New Age wrote on August 31 that the government was considering rice export ata time when many countries, including neighbouring India, are reportedly pursuing a wait and see policy about exports in view of unfavourable weather conditions affecting output. According to FAO, the world production of wheat in 2009-10 will also decline by 4%.
It is too early to forget the situation of2008 when the government was facing difficulty in importing rice due to restrictions imposed by most of the rice exporting countries, which resulted from the worldwide shortage of food grain and their very high prices in the international markets.
Regarding the food and disaster management minister's assertion that rice export will enhance the country's image, some knowledgeable people say that by joining the club of rice exporting countries the Awami League-led alliance government wants to make some political gains. They ask how Bangladesh can export rice when it is still receiving food aid and importing foodgrain, particularly wheat.
It appears from the above that the time is not yet ripe to go for exporting rice. However, exporting limited quantity of aromatic rice may not pose any problem.
M Abdul Latrf Mondal B a loaner Secretary to the Government
E-mail: laWm43@gmail com