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Indian Ocean: New power game in the offing?

IFTEKHARUL BASHAR
IN the ancient Sanskrit literature the Indian Ocean is known as Ratnakara meaning "the maker (creator) of jewels." The real relevence of this name is being understood in this twenty-first century, as the high strategic value of this vast ocean is making it a theatre of maritime dominance of the Aslan powers. Today's jewels certainly are trade, influence and power, a raison d'etre for these developing countries to modernize and expand their maritime strength and broaden their sphere of strategic influence.
The Indian Ocean provides major sea routes connecting the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia with Europe and the Americas. It carries a particularly heavy traffic of petroleum and petroleum products from the oil fields of the Persian Gulf and Indonesia. Large reserves of hydrocarbons are being tapped in the offshore areas of Saudi Arabia, Iran. India, and Western Australia. An estimated 40% of the world's offshore oil production comes from the Indian Ocean. The ocean's importance as a transit route between Asia and Africa has made it a scene of conflict. Because of its size, however, no nation had successfully dominated most of it until the early 1800s when the United Kingdom controlled much of the surrounding land.
The global power gravitas is clearly shifting towards Asia, while the strategic landscape in the region remains marked diversity of conflict. With phenomenal rise of China and India, the Indian Ocean will matter more as these key players enter into a great-power rivalry in these waters as the whole Indian Ocean seaboard. including Africa's eastern shores, becomes a vast web of energy trade. Triggered by economic growth and strategic perception (shaped by the history and strategic culture), both China and India are investing in extensive military’ modernization and expansion. These are evidenced by their efforts to build up maritime strength with a view to attain supremacy in the Indian Ocean.
China has a very different name for this ocean. They call it Xiyang (Western Ocean). In 2009, for the first time, official Chinese state media quoted Defense Minister Liang Guanglie stating China's intention to build aircraft carriers. For China, building aircraft careers is all about underlining China's rise in the international system. 1'he argument is that all great powers build strong navies. And nothing demonstrates the maritime power of a nation more than an aircraft carrier. An aircraft carrier is a warship designed with a primary mission of deploying and recovering aircraft, acting as a seagoing airbase. Aircraft carriers thus allow a naval force to project air power great distances without having to depend on local bases for staging aircraft operations.
The enthusiasts of sea-power in China insist that without aircraft carriers, China will be unable to secure its growing interests far from the national shores and defend its massive sea-borne trade from threats. They highlight the fact that China is the only major power in the world today without a carrier capability. This year China has a defence budget of $70 billion, and a large share is to go to the navy rendering it the fastest growing arm of Chinese military.
Meanwhile, the Indian navy has already begun a comprehensive program to acquire power-projection platforms ranging from aircraft carriers to landing-platform dock ships. According to a leading international think tank, over the next decade the Indian navy plans a fleet of 140-145 vessels, of which half will be designed ocean-going. India is enthusiastic about strengthening its maritime capability with an ambition to establish its supremacy. Robert D. Kaplan, a noted expert on Indian Ocean Region, is of the opinion that "India is seeking to increase its influence from the Plateau of Iran to the Gulf of Thailand -an expansion west and east meant to span the zone of influence of the Raj's viceroys.”
The indigenous aircraft carrier with a tonnage of 37,500, designed by the Indian Navy, can operate Russian MiG-
29K, Ka3l helicopters and indigenous Light Combat Aircraft fighters. It will have two runways for takeoff and one for landing, and can accommodate up to 30 fighter aircraft. It is expected to be completed by 2011 and put into use by the Navy by 2014 The biggest warship to be ever built in India, all with home-made steel, the currier will be about five times larger than the 6,700 tonne Delhi class of destroyers, the largest warships made by India.
The carrier will also be equipped with home-made long-range surface-to-air missile system with multi-function radar and close-in weapon system, according to navy officials. With a length of 260 meters and a breadth of 60 meters, the warship will be propelled by two shafts, each coupled to two I.M2500 gas turbines developing a total power of 80 megawatt, sufficient to attain speeds over 28 knots, said the officials.
The project started in 2002 with the designing but was launched into fast track in 2006 when the construction of the warship building blocks began in Kochi.
India purchased the INS Viraat aircraft carrier from British Royal Navy in 1986, and thus became the only nation in Asia operating such a warship. Indian strategic experts view it as "a quest for sea supremacy". Indian policymakers are of the opinion that "the indigenous aircraft carrier will make the Indian Navy strong and self reliant." As Indian economy grows, the country's gas, oil and other commodity imports are climbing rapidly.
The Indian Ocean is bounded on the north by Asia (including the Indian subcontinent, after which it is named); on the west by Africa: on the east by Indochina, the Sunda Islands, and Australia; and on the south by the Southern Ocean (or, traditionally, by Antarctica).
Major powers will concentrate on the Indian Ocean region given its strategic and economic significance. A new power game in the region is of a high probability and this may have a significant destabilizing impact on the regional
states. The regional states should keep in mind (hat this region is vital to the regional and global economy. The international community should also encourage peaceful settlement of the maritime disputes.
Bangladesh faces the Indian Ocean through the Bay of Bengal. For ■ Bangladesh access to the oceans via Bay of Bengal is of utmost strategic importance. The recent development in Myanmar is a matter of concern for Bangladesh. The spat with Yangon in November 2008 over a rig placed by Myanmar for exploration purposes in territorial waters claimed by Bangladesh was a "wake up call” for Dhaka. The media has reported the Bangladesh navy as having a ten year plan to upgrade itself into a "three dimensional force”, which is
very logical. The Myanmar navy has grown enormously since 1988. Now it seeks blue water capability. Further modernization is only a matter of time. In this context Bangladesh must seriously assess and develop its own maritime capability to match the reality. The rapidly evolving strategic scenario in the Indian Ocean Region is something that Bangladesh should take into serious consideration. In Bangladesh, there is a surprising lack of research in maritime issues. We cannot defend our national interest vis-a-vis maritime boundary and exploration of oceanic resources unless we know the ocean well.
The Indian Ocean is gradually being militarised by many littoral states. The peacetime functions of the navy of many coastal countries have changed consid-
erably. It is not confined to defence of territories. The navies patrol the distant waters to keep safe the sea-lanes for transportation of oil from the Middle East to Far East and promotion of trade. Bangladesh needs to monitor and consider how to play a role in the area of security of the Indian Ocean.
Whoever controls Indian Ocean controls Asia. Though some experts reject any possibility of a large scale confrontation as the economic cost will be too high for both of the countries to bear. Militarization of the Indian Ocean may not be the disease but a symptom which will influence the future of not only Asia but also the rest of the world.
The author is a Research Associate at Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs