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Karzai wins first round

Mahmood Hasan
***The objective of this expensive experiment, which cost the international donors $ 223 million, was to give "democratic legitimacy" to the president and his government. But the low turnout and claims of outright victory by the two leading candidates can lead to devastating consequences if the loser 'rejects the final results.***
INCUMBENT Hamid Karzai has claimed victory after the first round of the Afghan presidential elections.
His nearest rival, former foreign minister .Abdullah Abdullah has made a similar claim. The official results are not expected for another two weeks. According to the constitution, if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, the two highest vote winners will have to run in the second round. Opinion polls before the elections suggested that Karzai was leading, with 44 percent against 26 percent for Abdullah Abdullah. The second round is expected on October 1.
There were 41 candidates including 2 women, most of whom were in the race for publicity. In a population of 28.5 million the number of registered voters was unusually high at 17 million, of
which 3 million were alleged to be frauds. In Kabul, voter identity cards were sold freely. The total number of polling centres was 6800, of which nearly 700 could not be opened as they were in areas under Taliban control.
The last election was held under UN supervision, but this one was the first under the independent Election Commission (EC) of Afghanistan. Sixtyseven foreign observers from 25 countries monitored the elections. Apart from electing the president, Afghans also voted to select 420 councillors from amongst 3000 candidates for its 34 provinces.
It is clear that despite claims of large scale voting, the majority of Afghans did not go to the polling booths for fear of Taliban reprisal. The Taliban had repeatedly warned through their "night-letters" (posters pasted at night) that they would
attack the booths and cut off the ink-stained fingers of voters. On election day there were 135 attacks in 15 provinces, which killed 26 people, including 7 policemen.
The post-election scenario remains rather confused. While Karzai, Nato, EU, UN and Washington have described it as a "victory for democracy," many observers are wary. Election officials claimed that between 40 to 50 percent voters cast their ballot -- much less than the 2004 election turnout of 70 percent. There are also allegations of rigging and vote fraud.
The objective of this expensive experiment, which cost the international donors S 223 million, was to give "democratic legitimacy" to the president and his government. But the low turnout and claims of outright victory by the two leading candidates can lead to devastating consequences if the loser rejects the final results. It can lead to fresh factional fighting and bury the "legitimacy of democracy" in the mountains of Afghanistan.
Hamid Karzai (52) son of Abdul Ahad Karzai, is from the Popolzai Pushtun tribe. Ahad Karzai was killed by the Taliban in 1999, which catapulted little known Hamid to the tribe's leadership. After the ouster of the Taliban in 2001, the Bush administration thought that Karzai
had the right credentials and installed him as head of the transitional government of Afghanistan. Later, Karzai was elected to the presidency in 2004 for a five-year term.
Landlocked Afghanistan, though geographically a part of Central Asia, is a member of Saarc. This is a country where kings and presidents have only reigned but never really ruled. Its history is replete with invasions, wars, coups, counter-coups, power struggles and assassinations. It has moved from monarchy to republic, then to communism and theocracy, and back again to republic. It is essentially a tribal society and in many respects has remained in the Middle Ages.
It is in this setting that Hamid Karzai is likely to preside over the country for the next five years. Over the past 8 years he has achieved little. Karzai has been accused of being unreliable and his administration extremely corrupt. Transparency International ranked Afghanistan at 176 out of 180 countries. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton once remarked that Karzai presided over a "narco-state."
Ethnicity and tribal identity of the candidates had lots of influence on the voting pattern. Abdullah Abdullah (Tajik) is popular in the northern provinces, as Karzai is in the south, where the Pashtuns
are in majority. The south is also the stronghold of the Taliban. Clever Karzai has successfully split the Tajik vote in his favour by making General Fahim (Tajik) his running mate and enlisting the support of Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum. He also secured deals with different warlords and agreed to give them a free hand to run their fiefs. Late monarch Zahir Shah also used to buy allegiance from tribal chiefs to remain the "King in Kabul" and "reign” over Afghanistan.
Though, for the first few years, Karzai remained a darling of the Bush administration, the Obama administration seems disenchanted with him. But then there are not many choices for Obama, it is either Karzai or Abdullah Abdullah --both CIA creations. The election is seen as a test for President Obama's strategy on how to crush the insurgency in Afghanistan. As the death toll of ISAF forces (currently at 100,000 troops) rises alarmingly, Obama has decided to send 6,000 more troops -- raising the total of US forces to 68,000. The 8 years of war have not brought them nearer to any victory. On the contrary, the resurgent Taliban appears better organised, and determined "to drive the infidels out of Afghanistan” - as did the Mujahideens with the invading Soviet forces.
To establish peace, Nato leaders and the US will have to think of alternatives. Richard Holbrooke, Obama's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, should immediately open meaningful dialogue with the Taliban to bring them into the mainstream of Afghan politics. The role of Pakistan -- which raised and abetted the Taliban Frankenstein and is now its victim — will be crucial for any peaceful settlement in Afghanistan. Karzai also needs to give up his anti-_ Pakistan stance and work .towards establishing an effective and corruption-free government. The active involvement of Iran will also be a determining factor in this process. The secretive role of India in Afghanistan, with a view to undermining Pakistan, has to be neutralised.
The majority of Americans feel that the war is not worth fighting. More troops will not bring victory. Americans should take lessons from the Vietnam War. Even a superpower like the US cannot fight wars of others indefinitely, particularly when its economic condition is precarious. The Soviets tried for ten years (1979-1989) to subdue the Afghans and failed. For how long will the Americans try to win in Afghanistan before they decide to leave? It has already taken 8 years, with no end in sight.
Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary.