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Asia economies to rebound in 2010, fears remain: ADB

AFP, Bangkok
Asian economies will likely bounce back from the global economic slump in 2010 but fears remain over the sustainability of growth if there is no wider recovery, the Asian Development Bank said Thursday.
The bank's chief economist Lee Jong-Wha said the outlook for East Asia this year remained "pessimistic" but foresaw a V-shaped recovery led by China if countries continue to focus on stimulating domestic demand.
"We are optimistic for developing Asia for aV-shape recovery.... But the big question is whether it will be sustainable growth - - in that part we are rather pessimistic without a full global recovery," Lee told AFP ahead of the launch of the ADB's biannual Asia Economic Monitor in Bangkok.
"It will be very difficult to return to the pre-crisis trend of growth," he added.
Despite an increasing proportion of export demand coming from within Asia, notably China, the region overall continues to rely on markets in the US, European Union and Japan for 60 percent of final goods exports, Lee said.
Those markets are less likely to recover from the global financial crisis so quickly, he said.
The ADB report recommended a continued focus on loose monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand, with support for small enterprises and stimulus packages that must be fast and efficient.
"The issue is how. effectively they (Asian governments) can mobilise these additional fiscal resources,' Lee said.
But non-economic events such as the A(H 1N1) swine flu pandemic and political issues such as North Korea nuclearisation, with "lowprobabilities but potentially large impacts" pose a big risk in the coming months, it said.
It showed that the pace of capital outflows from Asia had slowed in the first quarter of 2009. and Lee urged large Asian investors to focus more of their capital spending within the region.
There was already evidence that investors' appetite for risk was returning, said Lee, but the report included a chapter dedicated to regulation and the requirement for Asia to develop stronger financial architecmre.
"We need to balance between innovation and regulation," said Lee, calling for greater harmony of regulatory policy between states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its regional partners in China ano beyond.