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US-Russia nuclear deal: A great strategic significance

Barrister Harun Ur Rashid
ON 6th July, President Obama arrived in Moscow for a summit with his Russian counter-part Dmitry Medvedev. Both Presidents are in their forties and seem to have a new vision for the world. This is the first US-Russia summit and Obama opened the summit with confidence “predicting extraordinary progress” out of the summit. He said: “The US and Russia have more in common than they have differences."
The Russian President in the optimistic vein replied: "We will have a full-fledged discussion of our relations between our two countries, closing some of the pages of the past and opening some of the pages of the future."
'Tomorrow 1'11 be having breakfast with Prime Minister Putin. I have not met him before. I'm looking forward to that meeting" Obama said.
"My interest is in dealing directly with my counterpart, the President, but also to reach out to Prime Minister Putin and all other influential sectors
in Russian society so that 1 can get a full picture of the needs of the Russian people and the concerns of the Russian people," he said, pointing out that power was shared under the US constitution too. This signals a diplomatic way of saying that Putin excersises “real" power through President Medvedev.
According to a report in January,
2009 of Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), the US has now 1,198 land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-based missiles, and bombers which together are capable of delivering 5,676 warheads. The US now deploys at least 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads.
Russia has 816 delivery vehicles capable of delivering 3,909 warheads. While the number of deployed Russian strategic warheads is not known, the Arms Control Association estimates it at 2,000 to 3,000.
The United States and Russia have made a historic agreement to reduce their nuclear arsenals down to 1500 to 1675 warheads from a maximum of 2200 each now permitted, as part of a new arms control treaty that signals a dramatic improvement in relations between the two superpowers. The two nations have signed a binding agreement to negotiate the new treaty by the end of the year. They have also agreed on the more difficult issue of the number of launch systems (long range missiles and ships) that would be permitted. These will be limited to 500-1100, down from 1600.
The move is likely to bolster attempts to renegotiate a new nonproliferation treaty next year, and signals a willingness of the two big nuclear armed nations to work together to counter nuclear proliferation among states like Iran and North Korea by regaining the moral high ground and cutting their own arsenals.
However, the most promising aspect of the meeting was the willingness of both leaders to work together to improve the relationship, which Medvedev said had fallen to the lowest level under George Bush since the Cold War. As they stood waiting to sign the agreements the two presidents joked privately together.
The two sides signed a key agreement to allow the US military to transport military equipment and troops across Russian land and airspace to support operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan, a move which Obama said would save the US millions in costs and help with the war effort. Obama also announced that the two presidents had agreed to establish a Presidential Commission, co-ordinated by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian counterpart to foster on-going dialogue on issues ranging from the economy to health, energy and the environment, counterterrorism, science, civil society and handling emergencies.
"Too often the US and Russia only communicate on a narrow range of issues, or let old habits within our
bureaucracy stand in the way of progress," Obama said. In dealing with Mr. Medvedev he was dealing with the person who holds power in Russia, Obama said.
The agreement does not cover thousands more tactical nuclear weapons and both sides have more warheads in storage. They remained divided, however, over US plans to site
a missile defence shield in Eastern Europe, which Russia regards as a threat to its security. He publicly sought to reassure Russia that the US sees it as a priority, not to deal with Russia, but to deal with a missile coming in from Iran or North Korea or another state. "There is no scenario from our perspective in which this missile defence system would provide any protection against a mighty Russian arsenal," he said. Obama acknowledged that the planned shield in Poland and the Czech Republic was a "point of deep concern and sensitivity to the Russian Government". A review that he had ordered to check whether the system "works or not" would be ready within weeks. Obama promised to pass the assessment to Mr. Medvedev and said that it would be "the subject of extensive negotiations.
He appeared to hold out an olive branch to the Russians by saying that it was "entirely legitimate for our discussions to talk about not only offensive weapons systems but also defensive". The US has previously resisted Moscow's insistence on linking deals on nuclear weapons and missile defence. It remains unclear how both countries would address on conventional weapons or defensive weapons.
The thorniest issue between Moscow and Washington is the Nato aspirations of US allies - Georgia and Ukraine - appears to have been avoided. Former Soviet President Gorbachev said some time ago that a kind of federal union with Russia may take place in future with Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to stabilise this part of the world.
Former US National Intelligence Council Chairman Fritz Ermath explained that "as was the case in the Cold War today, US policy-making for Russia should be informed by the deepest possible understanding of Russia as a system, as a country, as a state, as a culture."
Political observers say the focus of the summit is to try and give not only the Russian government but also the Russian society a platform to be able to sec if there is the possibility of a new and different relationship with the US under the Obama administration.
The Obama administration's readiness to engage Russia in a meaningful way is a sign of hard-headed realism. The history of diplomacy makes amply clear that longstanding rivalries usually require engagement -often at the highest levels - to reach resolution.
After eight years of a dangerous bunker mentality in Washington. Obarnas's plans for engaging friends and adversaries alike offers the best hope for peace and harmony in the world.
Tho author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva