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WORLD ECONOMY

Ready to roll or still on the rocks?

AFP, Frankfurt
Some hard data is now underpinning prospects for a global economic recov-1 cry, but world leaders urge caution and at least one says the worst is still to come for some.
So should we perk up and head for the I high street, keep cash ready under the bed, or prepare for long, hard times?
Some sample figures released this week gave reason for hope.
In the United States, the world's biggest economy, key jobless claims fell to a six month low point, and a four-week average seen as a belter indicator also ! declined.
In Germany, the biggest European economy and a top global exporter, t industrial orders and output soared in May, catching analysts by surprise.
And the international Monetary Fund raised forecasts for growth in China, the . world's third-biggest economy, to 7.5 , percent this year from 6.5 percent, as well I as those for the US and Japan, number two worldwide.
Germany, Japan and the US are all believed to be at the bottom of their worst recessions since the bitter battles of World War II.
। That 's the good news.
But leaders of the Group of Eight agreed meanwhile that a full economic recovery was not waiting around the corner, US President Barack Obama said on Friday.
"We agreed that full recovery is still a way off, that it would be premature to begin winding down our stimulus plans," Obama told a post-summit press conference.
And World Trade Organisation chief Pascal Lamy said: "The worst of the crisis in social terms is still to come, which means that the worst of the crisis in political terms is still to come."
Other examples of seeing the glass half-empty or half-full were provided by two Paris-based groups, the International Energy Agency and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The 1EA said: "Over the past two weeks the mood has suddenly changed, as many leading economic and energy indicators continue to show very weak ; readings."
But the OECD reported the same day that some leading global economies showed signs of improvement in May, raising the chances of recovery.
For many analysts, the key factor in determining how things will go is a single word: credit.
"The credit oudook is the main threat that may yet turn the scant recovery we expect into a worst-case credit nightmare," UniCredit economists wrote.
Barclays Capital economist Thorsten Polled told AFP. "Credit is drying up and it's very unlikely that it starts flowing again as easily around the globe as it did couple ofyears ago," a phenomenon now seen as a principal cause of the crisis.
Germany’s finance minister warned of a "very serious" threat of a credit crunch later this year and its economy minister added: "We must prepare for difficult times and we must do it very soon."
The European Central Bank will invest 60 billion euros (84 billion dollars) into low-risk corporate bonds to boost business finance, and banks have been warned they could be sidestepped later if necessary to ensure more credit got to the overall economy.