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Spectre of instability in Nepal?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
Any government comprising support of 22 parties but devoid of the largest single group in the house is hardly expected to remain stable. When the Maoists have vowed to keep the pot boiling, it will be unrealistic to expect stability in Nepal.***
The former king of Nepal has broken his long silence. The other day he said he was deeply “anguished and troubled" by the current state of affairs in the country. At the same time Maoist leader and former prime minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal better known as 'Prachanda" has threatened street agitation against the new government of prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Ex-king Gyanendra in a statement marking the first anniversary of his cessation as the monarch of the former Himalayan kingdom has given vent to his feelings while a group of his supporters chanted slogans in capital Katmandhu in favour of royalty.
Two diametrically opposite sides —
the former king and his nemesis the Maoists -- have voiced their opposition to the government dropping enough hints that their supporters will not take things kindly in the coming days. Only a few weeks old government of Madhav Kumar is struggling to provide a semblance of political stability amidst growing concern that the picturesque country may well be heading towards another spell of violence and uncertainty.
The government headed by moderate communist leader Madhav Kumar Nepal took over the reins ending nearly a month long vacuum caused by the resignation of prime minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal .The new prime minister had assured his countrymen that he would spare no effort to bring back stability
that had been eluding their new found democracy. But doubts continue to persist whether the new government would really be able to give the nation the much required stability since "Prachanda" and his party (Maoist) are bent upon creating problems for the administration that had replaced theirs.
The Maoists, who form the largest single political group in the constituent assembly, vowed to continue their agitation till the "irregular act" committed by the president is reversed, but the new government stood by the decision creating wider differences between the Maoists and most other political parties headed by the new prime minister.
The tenure of Prachanda government was cut short because of differences among the coalition partners on the issue of dismissing the army chief centering the absorption of the Maoist cadres into the regular army. The army chiefs failure to abide by government instruction on the inclusion of about 19,000 former Maoist guerrillas in the armed forces was at the heart of the
crisis. While Prachanda's government was obviously keen to take them in the army, other political parties including the allies iri the cabinet were somewhat unwilling fearing that strength of “Prachanda” will increase manifold once they are cadered in the army. President Ram Baran Yadav, who won the largely ceremonial presidency as the nominee of the Nepali Congress and supported by most others barring the Maoists, expectedly took a position that ran counter to Prachanda on the issue.
The development that emerged has not come as a surprise since the political opponents of Prachanda were waiting for a time to avenge their defeat in the polls and they have certainly seized the opportunity. It is also believed that Nepal's powerful and large neighbour India too opposed the sacking of the army chief stemming from the issue of inclusion of the Maoist cadres in the army. The Maoists had obliquely blamed New Delhi for the crisis.
Prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal says he would continue his efforts to
bring the Maoists in the new administration. There is little likelihood that the Maoists will join the pew government unless their conditipns are met -- vvhich are quite difficult to be fulfilled. They want president Yadav to "apologise" or rescind the decision on sacking of the army chief, whose removal is also a key demand of the radical leftists. This will be a height of folly to expect that such demands will be met by a government which has come to power differing on these crucial issues.
At the same time, any government comprising support of 22 parties but devoid of the largest single group in the house is hardly expected to remain stable. When the Maoists have vowed to keep the pot boiling, it will be unrealistic to expect stability in Nepal.
Nepal faces a big political problem since the present constituent assembly must have to complete drafting of the new constitution by June, next year. All articles of the constitution have to be ratified by two third majority which is impossible without the cooperation of
the Maoists since they account for forty percent of the total members. Madhav Kumar's government wants to bring the Maoists into the government-, out without conceding to their major demands. Nepal braces for trouble ahead unless some kind of understanding is reached between the two sides. However, the differences seem somewhat irreconcilable.
Former king Gyanendra obviously is seeking to fish in the troubled water. With Nepal becoming a secular Republic replacing a Hindu kingdom and people whole heartedly endorsing the decision taken by all political parties, there is not even an iota of possibility that the monarchy may return. Handful of supporters cannot reverse the democratic aspirations that supplanted the throne. What is important for the political parties - - both in power and opposition - not to let things go to such a pass that people at any stage may bemoan the democratic rule.
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist and an analyst of international affairs.