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IMF sees silver lining in Asia

Star Business Report
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth projections for emerging Asia to 5.5 percent in 2009 and 7 percent in 2010, forecasting that emerging and developing economies will regain growth momentum in the second half of2009.
However the low-income countries are faced with challenges amid the ongoing global recession due to official aid shortage. IMF said in its "World Economic Outlook Update’ published on Wednesday.
"Low-income countries are facing important challenges of their own because official aid has fallen and these economies are particularly vulnerable to swings in commodity prices," it said.
China and India were topping the IMF list among the emerging Asian countries that are expected to gain economic prospects.
"The upgrade owes to improved prospects in China and India, in part reflecting substantial macroeconomic stimulus and a faster- than-expected turnaround in capital flows. However, the recent acceleration in growth is likely to peter out unless there is a recovery in advanced economies," said the report.
IMF said growth in the emerging and developing economies would accelerate to 4.7 percent in 2010 from 1.5 percent this year.
The global economy is beginning to pull out of a recession unprecedented in the post-World War II era, but stabilisation is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish.
Economic growth during 2009-10 is now projected to be about half
percentage point higher than projected in the April 2009 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reaching 2.5 percent in 2010.
Financial conditions have improved more than expected, owing mainly to public intervention, and recent data suggest that the rate of decline in economic activity is moderating, although to varying degrees among regions.
Despite these positive signs, the global recession is not over, and the recovery is still expected to be slow, as financial systems remain impaired, support from public policies will gradually diminish, and households in countries that suffered asset price busts will rebuild savings, said IMF.
The main policy priority remains restoring financial sector health. Macroeconomic policies need to stay 1 supportive, while preparing the ground for an orderly unwinding of extraordinary levels of public intervention. At the same time, given weak internal demand prospects in a number of current account deficit countries, including the United States, policies need to sustain stronger demand in key surplus countries, it said.
AFP adds: The IMF boosted its 2010 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent, an improvement of 0.6 point from its April forecast.
The updated IMF forecast was marginally worse for 2009, showing a contraction of 1.4 percent across the global economy.
"While the world economy is still in recession, the recovery is coming. But it is likely to be a weak recovery," the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said at a news conference.
In an update to its semi-annual WEO, the IMF said: "Financial systems remain impaired, support from public policies will gradually diminish, and households in countries that suffered asset price busts will rebuild savings curbing consumption."
The downturn now was expected to hit advanced economies harder this year, with a combined contraction of 3.8 percent instead of the flat growth previously seen. Weak 0.6 percent growth in 2010 was unchanged.
"The advanced economies as a group are still projected not to show a sustained pickup in activity until the second half of 2010, consistent with the April 2009WEO forecast," the IMF said.
Among the major economies, the IMF significantly marked up estimates for the United States and Japan.
For the US, the IMF pointed to improvements in the labour and housing markets, industrial production, and business and consumer confidence.
The IMF projected the world’s biggest economy would shrink 2.6 percent in 2009, two-tenths of a point less than the prior estimate, and grow 0.8 percent in 2010, instead of the zero growth previously forecasted.
It hiked its outlook for Japan to 1.7 percent in 2010, up a hefty 1.2 points. Growth this year in the second -largest economy was estimated at a negative 6.0 percent, instead of the 6.2 percent contraction previously forecast.
The downturn would hammer the eurozone harder. The IMF projected the 16-nation bloc would contract 4.8 percent in 2009,0.6 point worse than the April forecast, and shrink 0.3 percent in 2010.