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G-8 SUMMIT

Leaders scan recovery signals

AP, L'aqulla. Italy
Britain and the United States may see room (or more stimulus. Germany is worried that it has done too much already.
The leaders of the Group of Eight nations - united in their desire to work together to fight the worst economic crisis since the Depression, divided on how much longer they need to keep the stim ulus going - are discussing Wednesday how to coordinate their exit strategies once their economies are stable.
But the financial data is still grim -- from rising unemployment to slowing growth -- and most economists think the crisis has yet to reach Its nadir.
The leaders of the G-8 - Britain. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States - will discuss when to begin the shift from the current empha sis on fiscal stimulus, but they also arc likely to remain cautious in their assessment of recovery so far.
China's President Hu Jintao had planned to take part in a G-8 meeting with major developing countries, but cut short his official trip to Europe to rush home after ethnic tensions soared in China’s western Xinjiang territory. The Foreign Ministry said Hu had left Italy and State Councilor Dai Bingguo would attend in his place.
Both the United States and Europe have posted dismal jobless numbers. Unemployment in the euro zone rose in May to a 10-year high with more than 15 million people out of work. In the United States, the jobless rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June as U.S. employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs. Leaders fear more jobs still could be lost.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has emphasised that while there arc clear signs of recovery -stronger consumer confidence, housing markets and retail spending - it is too early to be complacent or to change current policies. He will urge fellow leaders to push ahead with plans to boost the global economy despite sugges-tions the worst is over, emphasising die need to continue coordinated international action,
a British official said on condition of anonymity.
Brown's five-point plan for the summit includes increasing bank lending, reducing volatility in oil prices, curbing trade protectionism, boosting private investment and safeguarding the jobs of younger people.
President Barack Obama signed an S787 billion economic stimulus bill in February, but only about 15 percent of that has made its way into the economy so far -creating a debate between the wait-and-see camp and economists who urge another stimulus, arguing the recession proved to be deeper and more devastating than
originally believed.
"The challenge is how much more to put in. They clearly want to wait because you still have 85 percent to hit Americans' wallets and Congress is quite rightly feeling cash-strapped,” said John Kirton of the G-8 Research Group at the University ofToronto.
Because the impact of stimulus was still being measured, the discussions on possible exit strategies will remain "quite academic," Kirton said. "None of the three largest economies in the world are ready to move on to exit strategies."
He noted that German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces elections in September and the
stimulus is unpopular among her supporters, while Japan, like the United States, is still waiting to gauge the impact of the last round.
The host Italians are promoting regulations to help prevent future economic crises based on a framework laid down at a G-8 Finance Minister's meeting last month. The 12-common principles aim to create a "strong, fair and clean economy" by fighting tax evasion, protectionism, bribery and money laundering.
France and Britain also want to discuss how to avoid excess fluctuation in oil prices, with a proposal for a price bracket high enough to allow oil companies to continue to
invest while preventing prices from going too high.
The leaders will also discuss climate change and development aid later in the afternoon before taking on security issues, including Iran's crackdown on prodemocracy demonstrators and North Korea's firing of ballistic missiles into the ocean in violation of UN resolutions.
As the leaders headed to L'Aquila, over 100 Greenpeace activists occupied four coal-fired power stations across Italy, demanding more leadership on climate change. Coal is the worst climate pollutant of all the fossil fuels.