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Afghanistan: Heeding horrid history
I. M. Mohsin
A Canadian think-tank. CIFR has produced a thorough report on Afghanistan under Fragile States. After delving dbep into details about the AfPak area based on Millennium Goals etc., the treatise indulges in imagining the worst/best case-scenarios. It underlines that: "Indeed, 98% of Afghan civilians are directly affected by the present conflict and Afghanistan has the tenth highest average of the people killed per million per year."
The paper also considers the current upsurge as "somewhat artificial and temporary." Praising the donors for the "extent to which they have invested in Afghanistan," the brief wishes that Obama's "promises" about "combating terrorism” will be honoured through induction of more troops into the tumult. The prognosis for the worst-case-scenario tends to indicate that General McChrystal's Iraq mantra would prolong the status quo.
Despite being an excellent exercise, it draws conclusions that are purely hypothetical. A scrutiny like this should have been able to reveal more definitely why the "insurgency" is becoming more threatening. What role did the Afghans play in 9/11 as per the US version of the tragedy? What is US's strategy now that she is stuck in this quagmire? I low does the history of the area advise against such adventures? Should history be taken seriously to bring peace, as the whole world appears to be held hostage by the prevailing mess? Why OBL survives
as a ghost who can be cited but not traced by the best scanning equipment? Unfortunately, any thesis that avoids deliberating on such issues will be only a theoretical kick.
Simnon Jenkins, in the Guardian, calls it "Obama's Vietnam." He affirms that Vietnam trounced Johnson and Nixon besides undermining a generation of Americans. His advice: Afghanistan, dubbed the "good war," could do the same. If history of the two areas is any guide, Afghanistan could turn out to be much worse for US unless an exit strategy supported by Pakistan is adopted. While the last administration kept up jingoistic pressures it failed to find a way out.
Obama has restored the dignity of his office by the use of diplomatic lingo while dilating on all issues, but he appears to be conscious of the Herculean challenges posed by the vested interests. As the media is, generally, controlled by lobbies whose pretensions have prevailed in defining US policy, a president has to seek compromises. He can do it as brashly as Bush or intelligently as Clinton.
Only time will tell how Obama can make US interests triumph over peculiar complexes of smug Cabals, which wield power through lust, money, media etc. Giving him die benefit of doubt, one may not agree with Tom Englehardt that Obama"... is also president of US which means that he is head honcho for the globe's single great garrison state which now lives off war."
It now dawns that US had two major
disasters in 2001, i.e. George W and 9/11. Despite the 9/11 commission, no cogent case has been aired against Afghanistan. For this part of the world, it remains an enigma that damages US credibility. The ground realities in AfPak are becoming tougher for foreign forces since 2006 due to many reasons.
First, initially when the Taliban collapsed, a sigh of relief was heaved by the Afghans as they disapproved of the regime's fundamentalism. Secondly, hope was built up by the Bonn Conference 2002 that a new order would benefit the Afghans as touted by US.
Third, US's surrogate conceded too many favours to the northern warlords, which boosted corruption and dismayed the Pashtun majority. Fourth, mismanagement, lack of financial commitment from donors etc., ushered in a famine-like situation in the south-east which dashed all hopes of the Pashtuns.
Fifth, the Taliban revived their "resistance to the occupation." As Kabul had no control, most people started looking to the Taliban for security. They cultivated vast fields of opium. It also became a breakthrough for the Taliban who ensured safe operations by the Pashtuns right up to the export of such stuff. Sixth, the patronising attitude of the US forces, caused more by ignorance than by petulance, offended the local people.
The indiscriminate killing of civilians, described as "collateral damage," has earned US an interminable enmity as per the culture. No wonder the aggrieved joined Taliban to avenge the deaths of their kith and kin, which had become their duty. Being a fiercely independent people, their animosity is like the “cow-dung fire," which can't be easily put out.
The induction of a new ISAF commander whose claim to fame is, reportedly.
his brutal slaughter of Iraqi dissidents is a big conundrum. His predecessor had called the situation a "stalemate," and he was working keenly for a rapprochement with Afghans. Howard Zinn’s famous remark two years back on a TV show hosted by Amy Goodman:" If we were teaching the history of Vietnam as it should be taught, then the American people, from the start would have opposed the war. instead of waiting for three or four years' reflects the Americans' apathy to whatever is done in their name.
History highlights that the Pashtun hates "occupation." It is about 8 years since foreign forces entered. Having achieved precious little by way of giving security, freedom, development etc. to Afghans, thanks to a corrupt set-up, like Diem in Saigon of yore, the wheel appears to have come full circle. Obama's overtures obviate confusion. His best defence is that he is haunted by too many Albatrosses swirling around the US - Gitmo and its detainees, including the most-scandalous case of exambassador Mullah Zaeef, Iraq's destruction, Abu Ghraib, CIA's EU prisons for torture, Bagram's atrocities etc. The spillover of the virus into Pakistan and the controversial bombings by the US drones have already caused devastation.
Considering the US's quandary, Obama appears to be their best bet due to his unusual understanding of the region. He should learn from history and make an exit plan which would win a consensus. The US is fast losing goodwill in the Muslim world due to the death and destruction. If the suffer short shrift, that may make it the last straw on the camel's back All must follow Benjamin Franklin: "There never was a good war or a bad peace."
I.M Mohsin is a for mor Intanor Secretary
©The NaBon All rights reserved Reprinted by arrangement
witn Asia News Network
***Considering the US's quandary, Obama appears to be their best bet due to his unusual understanding of the region. He should learn from history and make an exit plan which would win a consensus.***