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The Afghan boomerang

M.B. Naqvi
THE time and place to locate the Afghan trouble is Vietnam in the early 1970s. The Vietnam War was not going well for the US, and defeat seemed likely. It was then decided that the west would have to retaliate against the east somewhere.
The west selected Afghanistan. Pakistan and Iran were available to assist. Although there were agreements that Afghanistan be left as a neutral buffer between two superpowers, the west decided to breach this understanding in retaliation against Russian success in Vietnam. The local satraps of the west, the Shah of Iran and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, were enthusiastic pro-American rulers. Bhutto had revived Cento and held the largest eKrexeroiseflffKarachiporb>^oijuj tc
The new western design began with the realisation that while democracy and western values could not easily defeat Communism s appeal, maybe the Muslims' God, His Prophet and the faith could if pitted against the Communists' acolytes in Afghanistan.
The starting gambit was to entice Sardar Muhammad Daud, who rode to power with the support of Afghan communists. It seemed as if Afghanistan would become a western success. But it was in breach of the old understandings between the superpowers. Afghanistan was one of the weakest spot in Russia's soft underbelly and strategically a gateway to Central Asia. Hence it was chosen.
While the west collected money, bought equipment, arranged logistics and organised the war, Bhutto's ISI and the Saudis provided highly motivated but irregular warriors. The Mujahideen's indoctrination was founded on the strong local faith of Deobandi Islam, to which were added bits of Salafi and Wahabi faith and opinions. This proved enough to conquer Afghanistan.
It was a long hard job, and took almost a decade. But the west did win. Why the Russians went out of Afghanistan unconditionally has remained unexplained to this day. Could it be that the Americans had promised not to integrate Afghanistan into the western power system? But nothing definite is known.
The game began by the two satraps of the west enticing Sardar Daud with promises by the west of developing Afghanistan with a $2 billion loan from the Shah. Some $200 million are said to have been disbursed. Daud happily agreed to cross over to the west. But he asked for time before he put any signatures on paper.
He wanted to liquidate the commu-
nists parties — Khalq and Parcham — which had supported him and had
•jeroHtly become united> He hvldLa tpe^1 cial secret enclave where the liquidation of communists was being planned.
As the meeting proceeded it looked as if the Communists knew what was being discussed. In the end they preempted Sardar Daud by killing him first; and took over Kabul. The west was furious and started a war against the PDPA regime.
The west won the victory early in 1989. The Soviets withdrew unconditionally after signing the Geneva accords. It appears that the US too notionally withdrew in terms of 1907 agreements between Britain and Russia that ended the Great Game as it was called.
It laid down the rules of the game for the control of Asia. They divided Asia at the latitude passing through Tehran: The Russians would not cross that line southward and the west promised not to move into what became areas under Soviet influence.
These understandings survived the 1917 Revolution in Russia and the passing of leadership of the west to America in 1946. In theory, the understandings are being observed even today, though there is a bit of confusion about Afghanistan and now Pakistan. Afghanistan had indeed dissolved itself into many civil wars.
The first Afghan civil war broke out in 1993, one and a half years after the formation of the seven-party Islamic government that Pakistan had fashioned and installed — after which the Pakistan PM offered thanksgiving prayers in the Grand Mosque of Kabul.
The second time was after Pakistan succeeded in helping re-establish order over 80% of Afghanistan -- leaving only the northern strip to be ruled by warlords belonging to, or aligned with, the seven Afghanistan religious parties. Pakistan helped establish Taliban regime that the US drove away after The Taliban would not have left them alone. They must have done so under J^kj^mj influent whicJj. yiit^tur^ must have taken its cue from America. Anyway Northern Alliance is said to have been supported by Iran, India and Russia. It is therefore possible that the Americans stayed off that area because of the same old Russo-British rules of the game, amending it for Afghanistan.
But how could Northern Alliance stay quiet and do nothing? It is logical that they would try to harm and hurt both the Taliban and their patron, Pakistan. Have they done anything of the kind?
After 9/11 the US invaded Afghanistan and drove the Taliban into Pakistani Balochistan. Taliban did return to Pakistan but got into Afghanistan as insurgents for fighting the US, ISAF and Nato forces. They look like eventually winning over the Karzai regime led by western forces.
One mystery remains. What is the Northern Alliance doing today? Who is funding, equipping and guiding the Taliban uprising in north-western Pakistan. These Taliban have extended their control in many areas of Federally Administered Tribal Areas and are now fighting hard to retain control of Malakand Division. Who is helping them is the question.
The Taliban are fighting the Pakistan army in a way that cannot be done without big support from outside. Neither Pakistanis nor Americans talk about it. Why? If outsiders are supporting them, as maybe likely, why are the Americans tolerating Iranians, Indians and Russians harming what once a western bastion: Pakistan. Could it be that some new rules of the game are being written, or have these been agreed upon? The two big powers are not in the front, and those in front are India and Iran. But, anyway, the original jihad has in fact boomeranged mainly on Pakistan.
M B Naqvi is a leading Pakistani columnist
9/11. The US is still establishing some order under Karzai, though the outlook iwmainsgrim. ...,r ,-,.,, fmr
Pakistanis did two things in the 1990s: they had another go at Afghanistan under a new design. A new version of Mujahideen was created, which was even more extreme, more violent and more obscurantist than the 1980s version. Everyone knows what the Taliban regime did in Afghanistan. Only Saudi Arabia, UAE and Pakistan recognised them.
Second, it utilised the old Mujahideen and some other Islamic zealots belonging to various Pakistani religious parties and sent to Kashmir for a jihad against India. This, too, lasted about a decade or a little more. India had a hard time for just over a decade. But under the threat of invasion, India did obtain a promise from Pakistan to "notallowi any territory under its control to be used against India."
For Afghanistan, they produced a new version of Mujahideen called Taliban in 1994. Under the guidance of ISI, the Taliban occupied 80 percent of Afghanistan by 1996 and helped form a Caliphate. Pakistan thus became a suzerain over Afghanistan while a Taliban government ruled in Kabul for five years. This was largely due to the Shah of Iran having been overthrown by an Iranian revolution led by the clergy.
The Taliban government was a Caliphate that all Muslims were required to support. But. on the whole, the Taliban regime remained within the sphere of western power and influence.
The question now is: what has Northern Alliance been doing since 1996? The Taliban left the northern areas severely alone, to be ruled by what was called Northern Alliance. It was a rule made by warlords with connections to the original seven religious parties of Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance was left severely alone for some mysterious reasons. Why?