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How neighbours view the elephant

Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury 9111 jn’
THE Indians have spoken electorally. In what has been the largest election ever, at any time anywhere, in the world's biggest democracy, they have returned to power one of the world's oldest political parties, the Indian National Congress. They have displayed their willingness to continue to be led by a wise man, Dr. Manmohan Singh, and an experienced woman Sonia Gandhi, till such time change and youth come, as will happen inexorably, in the form of Rahul Gandhi. In the same breath, therefore this vast electorate has opted for continuity and change, welcoming the old and the new, displaying the maturity of the common voter. Also, demonstrating the efficacy of democracy as the most effective form of human organisation.
India, of course, is the region's "preeminent" power, politically, economically and militarily. Indians eschew the term "pre-dominant* as it smacks of "hegemonism." Raymond Aron defined "power" as the capacity of a political unit to impose its will over others. More recently, Joseph Nye has propounded the concept of "soft" or "smart" power,
^nt&lfng^hlftfftatRftfc.'tf^ patience, yet firmness and a modicum of sacrifice. It is hoped the Indian leadership will choose this course.
The signs so far are that they will. Though foreign policy figured little during the election campaign, the Congress manifesto emphasised the need to be particularly "engaged and connected" with Asia, naming most immediate neighbours. The great international relations theorist Hedley Bull had written: "The deepest fears of smaller units in the global system are their larger neighbours." So how do we see, as of now, the rest of South Asia behave towards India, whom they view as the "elephant" in the region? In three main ways.
One is the "pilot-fish" behaviour, an expression used by the Scandinavian Erling Bjol to describe post-World War attitude of Finland towards the USSR. It implies keeping close to the shark in order to avoid being eaten. Bhutan and Maldives probably fit the bill. According to the 1949 Treaty of Friendship between Bhutan and India, Bhutan's foreign policy was to be "guided" by India. In 2007, Bhutan managed to renegotiate a change to the treaty, particularly that requirement, perhaps as a reward for conducting operations against Bhutanbased anti-Indian insurgents.
In Maldives India had earned the gratitude of former president Gayoom by propping him up against coup attempts. No major change is expected under President Nasheed.
., n A second way is by making itself difficult to be overcome militarily by India. Pakistan has chosen to follow this route
by acquiring "minimum deterrent capability" through its nuclear arms and ever expanding arsenal. However, analysts have argued that this situation creates a state of equilibrium that provides scope for stable relations. But for India, nonstate actors in Pakistan, such as the Taliban and other Islamists, remain a source of anxiety. This understanding, buttressed by US pressure, appears to be leading Islamabad toward some positive action, something that Delhi will factor into the relationship.
The third way is by seeking to live "in concord with but distinct from" India. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal appear to be choosing this path. With Bangladesh's new Awami League led government of Sheikh Hasina there are some shared values with the Congress in terms of secularism, modernisation and market orientation, which should help bilateral relations. Yet, there persists in Bangladesh, including its very vibrant civil society, some deep-rooted suspicions of India. These involve issues of water-sharing, transit, non-trade barriers on the part of India, and unresolved maritime boundaries. They must be addressed. More work will need to be done by the Indian leadership to restore confidence in Indian actions among the common Bangladeshis.
In Sri Lanka, a civil war has just ended, with the government crushing the bloody insurrection for a separate homeland for the Tamil minority. India had turned a blind-eye to President Rajapakse's actions, despite the proTamil sentiments in its own state of Tamil Nadu. Now the new coalition government will be obliged to seek a role in the resolution of the minority problem. If Colombo is uncooperative, Delhi will perhaps exert some firmness, but not such that will cause Colombo to completely veer towards Beijing.
Beijing will also be a factor in India's relations with Nepal, which is in chaos. The Maoist leader Prachanda , who has just resigned, has accused India of aiding
rivals. And the Maoists will remain a force in Nepal in the foreseeable future.
All these challenges will test the deftness of India's diplomacy, and also its policy-making capabilities. However, if India is to play the role it aspires to in the world beyond it must carry the region with it. It includes the goal of a permanent , seat in the Security Council of the United Nations, for opposition to all aspirants in this regard — India, Germany, Japan, Brazil and South Africa — appear to be coming from their neighbours.
In the Bhagavad Gita, which is a small section of the epic Mahabharata, Krishna, a divine incarnation in human form, argues with the hero Arjuna, urging him to Tight the adversaries no matter what the consequences because the cause is just. Arjuna dithers, pondering over the possible resultant misery and slaughter.
Amartya Sen asserts that this debate between perceived duty and consequence is as valid now as then. Indeed, it is the philosophical capacity of the Indian psyche to be able to objectively weigh considerations on both sides of a debate that must drive India's policy in the region. India must be the elder, not the big, brother, with a special responsibility. It must not only be the largest country in the heart of South Asia, but also the country with the largest heart. It is as simple, or as difficult, as that.
Iftekhhar Ahmed Chowdhury was former Advisor on Foreign Affairs to the caretaker government He is currently Visiting Senior Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore National University.