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Will Indian election results surprise voters?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
THE results of the five-phase national elections in India will be made known from today. Major players have already begun their exercises, covertly or overtly, to form the new government even though they are publicly maintaining their hitherto known postures about their political opponents. Apart from two main parties, which also lead their respective alliances, others too are not less active since the polls may give a "hung" parliament.
The magic number of272 seats in the 573-member Lok Sabha is clearly beyond reach of either the Congress or the BJP. Hence, the game for the next government remains wide open, with every likelihood of smaller combines or regional parties playing a pivotal role in the event of a fluid situation.
President Pratibha Patil will be the cynosure of all eyes and the Rastrapati Bhaban the venue of activities relating to the future governance of the world's largest democracy. In the case of clear winner, the president has no difficulty in inviting the particular group to form a new government. But that is unlikely this time.
In the last polls, the incumbent BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was the favourite, but the Congress was the winner. The NDA was so complacent that it advanced the polls by a few months. The decision boomeranged as its "shining India" slogan backfired, with rural India mostly voting for the non-NDA platform.
What is going to happen this time? The BJP-led NDA combine is making a drastic bid to wrest power. Its 81-year-old prime
ministerial hopeful Lal Krishna Advani's chances of adorning the seat of head of government will fade if the party fails.
Unlike the political landscape in the United States or Britain, or even in Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not necessarily a matter between two major parties or their leaders as to who will form the new government TYue, in India, too, two major parties or alliances are there and are at the vanguard of competition, but others do not recede to insignificance. Who had thought that a United Front government would be at the helm in the midnineties and that too with a less known H.D. Deve Gowda as the premier?
This time a "third front," comprising the leftists and some regional secular parties, has the chance of influencing the formation of die new government, even diough it may not secure many seats. Aso-called "fourth front." made up by the erstwhile components of the UPA, may also become important. Some one from the "third front,” like Mayawati of the BSP in Uttar Pradesh, or a leftist leader from West Bengal or Kerala may find himself in the prime minister's position.
Likewise, Mulayam Singh Yadav of SP , Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rastrriya Janata Dal of Bihar or Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress of Maharastra -- who all are disenchanted with the Congress --harbour ambitions for the high office. Pranab Mukherjee may also come closer than anytime before for premiership should complexity warrant a Congress-led government minus Manmohan Singh.
While it is a general impression that, in the event of a Congress-led government, Dr. Manmohan will be the premier, even
though most Congressmen would like to see Rahul Gandhi taking the reins as the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Should Manmohan become premier again, he may also quit it anytime, making way for 38-ycar-old Rahul.
If the NDA succeeds, Advani is the choice, but hardcore Hindu nationalists are also seeking to project Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, known as rabidly communal, as an alternative.
In any case, there is expected to be a confusing post-election scene with hardly any party or group likely to claim outright victory. Permutations and combinations are already discernible, even before the announcement of the results, and overtures arc also clearly there taking into account the possibilities Sonia Gandhi and
Rahul Gandhi, despite their strong anti-left rhetoric and electoral ties with TYinamul's Mamta Baneerjee, chose not to fly to Kolkata for electioneering. Evidently, this is meant to not further alienate the leftists, who nurture a severe dislike of Manmohan for his pro-American policies.
The BJP is wooing Jayalalitha of Tamil Nadu and some others to make up the losses suffered by die parting of ways by TDP of Andhra Pradesh and Biju Janata Dal of Orissa. Some regional parties, which arc not expected to gamer many seats, are also seeking to sit up and call the shots in case the result becomes too close a call. The Indian election results promise an interesting scenario.
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior Journalist and analyst of International affairs