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Data show upbeat sign for US factory sector

AFP, Washington
The US factory sector slumped in April for a 15th straight month but the pace of decline was less severe than expected, new data showed Friday in another upbeat sign for the recession-hit economy.
The Institute of Supply Management said its index of the manufacturing sector, also known as the purchasing managers (PMD index, rose to 40.1 percent from 36.3 percent in March -- the highest reading since September and the fourth straight uptick
It was however still below the 50 percent level that separates expansion and contraction. Most analysts had expected the April figure at around 38.4 percent.
"The decline in the manufacturing sector continues to moderate," said Norbert
Ore, head of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee.
After six consecutive months below the 40-percent mark, the PMI "shows a significant improvement." he said.
But Ore added that while this was a "big step forward," there was "still a large gap that must be closed before manufacturing begins to grow once again."
A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
The institute’s index that captures new orders was among the best performers in April - at 47.2 percent from 41.2 percent in March. It has now more than doubled from its Decemberlow.
The production index was up to 40.4 from 36.4.
The headline ISM should
hit the 44 mark by June or July, according to forecast by Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist for High Frequency Economics.
"That's immensely significant, because 44 is consistent with stable GDP (gross domestic product)," he said. "So far, the signal is one of slower contraction."
The government estimated earlier this week that the GDP contracted by a massive 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, worse than the 4.7 percent annualized decline expected by private economists and only marginally better than the 6.3 percent fourth-quarter slide.
"Let's face it, the manufacturing sector is still in the tank and it has a long way to go before the good times will roll," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.