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Flu fighters warn against complacency, seek clues

AP, Mexico City
The leader of an international team helping Mexico face down the swine flu out break said it should soon learn whether the epidemic is really stabilising in Mexico, but that many key questions about how the disease kills still need to be answered.
Dr Steve Waterman, the head of a team from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, also warned against taking false comfort from the fact that only one person has died outside Mexico, saying more deaths are likely as the epidemic evolves.
"That is the big question: Is it stabilising or not? And it is too early to say, but I think we are getting systems in place where we are going to be able to get a handle on this soon," Waterman, standing amid CDC doctors and specialists at the Mexico City nerve centre where officials are confronting the outbreak, said Friday.
Mexican officials have been cautiously optimistic that the worst is over here, even as the government took additional pro-
tective measures Friday by beginning a five day shutdown of all nonessential government and private business.
In Washington, even President Barack Obama voiced hope Friday that the new virus may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.
"It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus, in which case we will have prepared and we won't need all these preparations," Obama said, using the flu’s scientific name.
In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the United States with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Roman Catholic school.
The US case count rose to 155 on Friday, based on federal and state tallies, although state laboratory operators believe the number is higher because they are not testing all suspected cases.
Worldwide, the total confirmed cases neared 600. with the real number also believed to be much larger. The virus has also been detected in Canada, New Zealand, China, South Korea, Israel and eight European nations.
China was suspending flights from Mexico to Shanghai because a case of swine flu was confirmed in a passenger on a flight from Mexico, China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. Hundreds of Hong Kong hotel guests and workers were quarantined after a tourist from Mexico tested positive for swine flu, Asia's first confirmed case.
Waterman, whose team is working with Mexican officials, said the scientists are trying to determine the mortality rate of the virus, and don't yet know where it started or why. But he and other experts said it appeared the outbreak could have been far more deadly, particularly in the teemingstreets of Mexico's capital
"The virus has been circulating for over a month in a city of 20 million of high population density. It could have been much worse," said CDC epidemiologist Marc-Alain Widdowson.
Waterman agreed that the virus does not appear to match the ferocity of past killers. "Most people think it is unlikely this is going to be as virulent as the 1918 epidemic. From what we know so far. it doesn't seem like it is as virulent," he said