THE emerging conventional wisdom at the time of writing is that the events were premeditated, and not spontaneous. If this view is true, then it is important to scrutinise the rank and file of the BDR. Failure to do this means we run the risk of a rebel soldier killing an Indian officer during a flag meeting. The r repercussions of such an incident could be far reaching indeed. And even if nothing like that happens, it seems difficult to ask a 25 year-old captain to command a BDR platoon in the remote border areas. It is no surprise then that officers are yet to join their men at camps.

And yet, mysterious deaths in Pilkhana and elsewhere — five at the time of writing -- do absolutely nothing to improve the trust between officers and their men. Every such death makes it that much harder for the average BDR jawan to feel a sense of camaraderie with his officers. Indeed, every such death fuels an institutional antipathy amongst the BDR men towards their army brethren. The higher this death toll climbs, the less feasible it is to rebuild BDR.

And yet, the current situation is clearly not sustainable. What we are

faced with is the necessity to overhaul our border security and paramilitary forces, without tarnishing thousands of innocent BDR jawans who had nothing to do with this, men who shed their blood regularly defending our border. That is a huge task. That is the first part of the security crisis.

And who gains from this crisis? Who gains if our border is undefended? It's not the Indian government. They have

as much to lose from an unguarded border as we do, perhaps more than we do. An unsecured border will be used by smugglers of drugs, arms, and people. It will be used by violent jihadis, Naxalites, or separatists in the Indian north-east. They are the real beneficiaries of our crisis.

Could they have plotted something? Perhaps. No atrocity was necessary plotted. Something along the line of an assassination-army attack-bloodbath would have achieved the desired end of a security breakdown. The first stage of such a plot came to pass, but the second stage did not because of decisions taken by the government and adhered to by the army. Unfortunately, the atrocities may have created the same effects that any putative plotters might have sought.

And even if there were no conspiracy, extremists of various types or multi-national organised crime pose a threat to our national security as a result of this crisis. They are now connected. They can now move to and from the Indian north-east, or from Nepal to Burma, with impunity. Bangladesh has now become a dark passage. To complicate matters, the Burmese regime is already amassing troops in the border.

Inter-connectivity is the latest euphemism to describe India's desire to use Bangladeshi territory to move people and goods to and from its north-eastern states, and Bangladesh's desire to move people and goods to and from countries like Nepal and China via Indian territory.

For the full version of this article please read this month's Forum, available free with The Daily Star on Monday, Apnl 6

Jyoti Rahman is a blogger and can be contacted at dpwritors@drishtipat.org