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GLOBAL RECESSION

Bleak days ahead for migrants

Sohel Parvez
Remittance inflows are feared to face a slowdown in the coming months as migrant workers, battered by global recession, are returning home at an increasing rate.
Last month, 8,022 migrant workers came back home on strict enforcement of immigration rules and layoffs or long vacation by the employers in the Gulf region, mainly United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The number of returnees in February is almost double the January figure of 4,817, according to Bureau of Manpower, Employment andTraining (BMET) data.
But the outflow of migrant workers fell 13 percent to 43,856 in February from 50,632 in January.
“Our performance is better than that of (he workers from other countries. But we are losing jobs as there are no Bangladeshis in the mid- or top-level positions in a company," Kazem Ali, a retrenched worker from a construction firm in Dubai, told The Daily Star at Zia International Airport recently.
Bangladeshi migrant workers, whose remittances accounted for 10 percent of last fiscal year's GDP, started to encounter retrenchment as the global recession and oil price drop bite the businesses of oil-rich Gulf that employs the majority of the country's over 55 lakh workers abroad.
The fall in oil prices has also led to a contraction of demand for new labour in the Gulf region as its once-buoyant real estate market enters a steep downturn.
Mainly for the construction industry, the region hired nearly half of the 17.7 lakh Bangladeshi workers who migrated in the last two years.
Now the recruitment is waning as companies, mainly of UAE, are halting projects amid credit crunch.
In the first two months of 2009, new recruitment from the UAE slipped by 15 percent to around 51,000 from more than 60,000 in the same months a year ago.
Recruitment in Saudi Arabia, which employs the highest number of Bangladeshi workers at about 20 lakh, also dived in the recent months.
Malaysia, another major Bangladeshi worker employing country that now suffers from downturn in exports, is showing the similar trend.
“It's a very unpredictable year. Outflow of workers is declining slowly amid contraction of demand for new labour due to recession," said a senior official of BMET, requesting anonymity.
"The fear is, some workers are coming back on retrenchment,” he said.
Bangladesh, one of the top 10 remittance earners, is not the only victim of global recession that already ate up the jobs of millions of migrant workers worldwide.
International Labour Organisation in January said the financial crisis might cause a loss of as much as 50 million jobs worldwide in 2009.
International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has also feared that migrant workers
in the construction, manufacturing, finance, services, retail and tourism sec tors might fall prey to job losses.
T he IOM also rang alarm of a possible reduction in wages and return of migrant workers from the host countries.
"Workers from Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Malaysia are coming back at a higher rate. A section of them have been retrenched for recession," Ghulam Mustafa, president of Bangladesh Association ol International Recruiting Agencies (Baira), told I he Daily Star recently.
Baira feared that outflow of migrant workers might plummet by nearly half in 2009 to below 5 lakh from the record high of 8.75 lakh in 2008 as the demand for workers is waning on financial mel(down.
“Whether workers return or not, there will of course be a much less new intake going forward," said Mamun Rashid, an economic analyst and banker.
Zahid Hussain, senior economist of World Bank Bangladesh, feared that a fall in oil prices might hurt remittance inflows in thecomingdays.
Inflows of remittance, which is now the second biggest forex earning source after exports, has grown on an average 17 percent rate since 2001. It surged by 32.39 percent to about $8 billion in FY2008.
In the July-January period of fiscal 2009, remittance grew by 29.36 percent to S5.3 billion from $4.15 billion in the same period a year ago. In January, remittance inflow hit a record high, but it fell by around 9 percent to $784 .47 million in February, according to Bangladesh Bank data.
"The recent surge in remittance may be the lull before the storm if it reflects the remittance of savings by returnee workers," said the WB economist.
The WB earlier predicted that remittance flow to developing countries might slow down in 2009. The multilateral donor agency said remittance flow to South Asia might slip by as much as 5.5 percent Ln 2009.
"So far so good, there is no scope for complacency," said Zahid.
GOVERNMENT STEPS
In a bid to halt layoff and boost outflow of workers, the government had earlier convened a meeting with diplomats from host countries and asked them to take initiative to absorb workers in other companies in case of layoffs.
"We have urged the governments of host countries not to send workers back. We have requested them to absorb these workers in other companies in case they are laid off from one," said Minister for Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment Khandker Musharraf Hossain.
Following the meeting, missions abroad have also taken steps, he claimed.
"We have also moved to explore new markets like Libya and Rumania," the minister said, referring to signing an understanding agreement with Libya to send workers.
Officials said the government has also planned high-profile visits abroad to retain the existing markets, explore new ones and protect the rights of expatriate Bangladeshis.
For the last couple of years, the traditional and biggest employer of Bangladeshi workers, Saudi Arabia, has stopped recruiting new workers, while Kuwait stopped it in 2006.
"We are also planning to set up an Expatriate Welfare Bank to help migrant workers get easy term loans," the minister said.
ANALYSTS'VIEWS
Tasneem Siddiqui, a researcher of Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU), however, said the steps taken by the government are inadequate.
“The government has just made embassies aware of its concerns. But it has not developed any system to help workers get compensation,” she said. “The government should form a taskforce involving Bangladeshi representatives in the employing countries.”
Tasneem, referring to the Philippines, said its government has developed a database for workers who suffered layoff. In case of new recruitment offers, it is sending the battered workers instead of new ones, she said.
“The country is also realising compensation for jobless workers from the companies through govemment-to-govemment negotiation,” she said.
The RMMRU researcher also suggested a credit scheme from the Wage Earners Welfare Fund to rehabilitate the returnee workers. “A credit scheme can be offered from the fund and credit may be disbursed
through local level NGOs,” she said.
Rabab Fatima, regional representative of IOM, Dhaka, said the government should plan social and economic safety net measures considering the likely impacts this year.
She also suggested a taskforce and budgetary measures to cushion negative impacts of recession on migrant workers.
“In case workers are laid off and have to return home, the government should have adequate plans for their repatriation and reintegration into local job market and economy. Microcredit could be provided to such returnee migrant workers," she said.
World Bank Economist Zahid Hussain said many economies would absorb workers even in the days of recession.
“Bangladesh missions there should act proactively. There are labour substitution processes in many markets where employers are looking for low-cost labour instead of high cost ones. We should act to exploit the opportunities," he said.
He also suggested improvements in support services of Bureau of Manpower. Employment and Training by disseminating information on new jobs and facilitating application procedure.
sohel@thedailystar net