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Remittance dips to a new low

Migrant outflow to major countries drops

Rejaul Karim Byron
Remittance growth in February was the lowest in the last eight months due to the ongoing global recession.
Manpower exports to the major countries have dropped, which will also cast a negative impact on the overall remittance growth, feared Bangladesh Bank (BB) offi cials.
Although the overall remittance growth was 27 percent in the eight-month period (July to February) of the current fiscal year, in February it was only 15 percent compared to the previous February's $689.26 million.
The remittance inflow in February was $784.47 million, which was $859 million in January.
Except October, the last six months' remittance growth ranged from 19 percent to 53 percent.
In the first eight months of the current fiscal year the total remittance inflow was $6,148.2 million against $4,840.51 million in the same period last fiscal year.
On the basis of the eight-month figure, a BB official said although remittance is yet to feel any negative impact, there is a possibility in future. He said if the global recession prolongs, the labour market abroad may shrink and salary level will drop, leading to a fall in future remittance inflow.
.Around 65 percent remittances are sent by workers from the Middle East, while
around 27 percent come from the USA and European countries.
The ADB's Quarterly Economic Update on Bangladesh released on Monday outlined the country's shrinking labour market.
The annual growth in the number of workers leaving Bangladesh for overseas jobs slowed sharply to 5.1 percent in 2008 compared to 118.2 percent in 2007.
Among the major destinations for overseas employment, new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Saudi Arabia fell by 35.3 percent in 2008. Kuwait has reduced hiring
Bangladeshi workers since late 2006. In 2008 new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Kuwait fell by 92.4 percent and in Bahrain by 19.8 percent.
New job opportunities for Bangladeshi workers also declined in 2008 in Malaysia by 51.8 percent and in Brunei by 11.1 percent on economic downturn.
The recession is also badly affecting new jobs for Bangladeshi workers in Europe as in 2008 new jobs for Bangladeshi workers fell by 36.7 percent in Italy and 2.1 percent in the UK.
Job opportunities however grew by 202.6 percent in Oman, 85.2 percent in the UAE, 68.9 percent in Qatar and 47.6 percent in Singapore.
Meanwhile, the central bank has formed a seven-member committee to monitor remittance inflow. The committee headed by a BB executive director comprises representatives from the ministries of finance, foreign affairs, expatriate welfare and overseas employment, Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies, and Bangladesh Association of Banks.
The BB has already asked all commercial banks to extend cooperation to the committee, and three private commercial banks got permission to set up exchange houses in Malaysia and the UK.
However the foreign currency reserve is not satisfactory as the reserve was $5.43 billion yesterday that is below import bill for three months.
The international satisfactory level of forex reserve is equal to the import bill for three months. In the last six months average import bill was $1.97 billion per month. Accordingly, in three months the reserve should be $5.91 billion.
The BB official said although monthly import bill was over $2 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year, recently it came down. In November it was $1.8 billion and in December $1.6 billion. So, there is no cause for concern over forex reserve, the official said.