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ECONOMIC MELTDOWN

Asians in for a bumpy ride

Asia News Network
In its final look at Asian economies and their unique methods of combating the recession, Asia News Network brings down the focus to The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, l.aos and finally. Bangladesh.
Both the Philippines and Malaysia have lowered projected growth rates and the economies have received stimulus packages form their governments.
Indonesia is in for a roller-coaster ride as the effects of the recession are coupled with Ute upcoming elections this year.
Vietnam's economy also faces a grim forecast this year as foreign investment and exports and remittances are expected to fall.
Meanwhile, the government of Laos has admitted GDP will be lower than expected, but has not yet revised its targets.
Bangladesh reveals a slightly different scenario as no stimulus packages have been announced as yet. The country shines from basic garment exports and a steady remit tance inflow, but falters on the other cur rency winners.
| T he Philippines
Weighed down by weak conditions in major economies, the Philippine economy grew by 4.6 percent in 2008, down from a 30 year high of 7.2 percent the previous year, but slightly higher than expectations. The government had expected the financial crisis to depress2008 growth to 4.2-4.5 percent.
In 2009, the government has set a 3.7 to 4.7 percent economic growth target.
But the IME expects the country's GDP to slow down further to 2.25 percent this year.
It warned that the global economic turmoil can affect the Philippines more severely this year, projecting that weakening demand in foreign markets and job cuts abroad might force foreign exchange remittances and export earnings to dwindle.
Exports plunged 40.4 percent in December, its steepest fall in more than two decades, the government's statistics office said.
Shipments of electronics, the country’s main export, dropped 47.6 percent during the period.
Total exports in 2008 fell 2.86 percent from 2007, reflecting the effects of the global financial crisis.
Since the crisis started taking its toll in October, 19,443 workers have lost jobs in the Philippines and 4,042 overseas.
Most of the job cuts were in the electronics sector, which has suffered from plunging global demand.
Labour Secretary Marianito Roque warned that up to 60,000 Filipinos could lose their jobs this year, mainly in the electronics and garments industries.
To pump prime the economy and generate three million jobs by yearend, the Philippine government plans a 330-billion-peso (US$6.9 billion) economic stimulus package.
The government has also set up a 1-billion-peso livelihood fund for overseas Filipino workers who could lose their jobs. The fund could be used to provide loans for returning workers, who want to acquire new skills, undergo retraining or start a business.
| Indonesia
Indonesia has set aside a 71.3 trillion rupiah (US$6.31 billion) stimulus fund to boost the economy amid the crisis. The package includes the 27.5 trillion rupiah stimulus previously announced.
The new stimulus revolves around tax
savings worth 43 trillion rupiah, waived taxes and import duties for businesses and certain households, worth 13.3 trillion rupiah, as well as subsidies and government spending of 15 trillion rupiah for businesses.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the stimulus was aimed at increasing people's purchasing power, the competitiveness and sturdiness of businesses facing the economic downturn, and labour-intensive infrastructure spending.
The incentives include paying the income taxes of employeesnow paid by businesses, subsidising diesel, and increasing infrastructure spending.
Indonesia's economy expanded 6.2 percent in 2008, slowing slightly from 6.3 percent in 2007.
The economy grew 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the slowest in two years.
But the government has warned that 2009, an election year, could be tougher, with growth seen at between 4.5 and 5 percentbelow the 6 percent pace that analysts say is needed to prevent unemployment from rising among Indonesia's 226 million people.
The country is being pummelled by the global economic meltdown: with December exports plunging 20 percent from a year earlier as overseas demand shrinks. The decline overshadowed a 20 percent rise in full-year exports from 2007.
Indonesia's export figures slid by 9.57 percent to US$8.7 billion in December, from US$9.6 billion the previous month.
£ Vietnam S3
Vietnam's economy is in for a tough time this year. Foreign investment is expected to slow down while exports and remittances
from Vietnamese abroad are also expected to fall.
Forecasts for this year's growth range from as low as 4 percent to the government's more optimistic 6.5 percent.
Export turnover reached nearly US$63 billion in 2008, up 29.5 percent over 2007. However, monthly export turnover slowed to only US$4.2 billion in November and US$4.9 billion in December compared to the usual monthly average of more than US$6.5 billion.
The government has set a 13 percent export growth target for 2009, or total exports of roughly US$72 billion.
The government has already introduced measures to protect the poor and the vulnerable against unemployment and its consequences. The government is also formulating a stimulus package for the finance system.
It will reduce selected import tariffs and allow selected companies to delay paying tax for the first nine months of this year.
It will also refund this year's value-added tax paid for all materials used to make exports. Designed to help exporters, the prime interest rate was reduced five times since October.
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung announced plans for a stimulus package in early December. The package was to include spending of about US$1 billion and tax exemptions.
The package had been increased to almost USS6 billion. It would include spending for infrastructure, housing, schools and hospitals, and tax cuts.
| Laos Q|
The Lao economy grew by 7.9 percent in the 2007-08 fiscal year, driven primarily by increased foreign investment and exports of
mining commodities.
The government plans to achieve eco- | nomic growth of 8 percent in the fiscal year 2008-09, but many international financial I institutions, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, believe this target is unrealistic due to the global financial crisis.
Fxonomisfs predict Laos will experience economic growth of 6 to 6.5 percent. The government has admitted GDP will be lower than expected, but has not yet revised its T targets.
The global economic slowdown has mainly affected tourism, exports and for eign investment in Laos.
The value of Lao exports reached US$1 billion, 47 percent of which came from exports of semi-processed minerals including gold and copper. Although exports increased, Laos still has a trade deficit of about US$80 million.
Commerce Minister Nam Vinhakhet, said the volume of exports would remain unchanged but their value would drop this fiscal year.
Minister to the Prime Minister's Office and government Secretariat Chief Cheuang Sornbounkhan said the government was keeping a close watch on business operations in Laos and would offer assistance to companies that might need to lay off workers.
The government has also urged local banks to offer low interest loans to selected enterprises in an effort to maintain economic growth.
| Bangladesh
Bangladesh achieved a real GDP growth rate of 6.2 percent in fiscal year 2008 despite uncertain and challenging circumstances created by natural disasters and other adverse domestic and external developments.
With a resilient trend of the real economy, Bangladesh is likely to achieve a GDP growth rate of around 6.0 percent in fiscal year 2009, according to the central bank
"The continuing slowdown of global growth, especially growth in advanced economies, may pose a big challenge, if it persists for long, through its impact on exports, workers' remittances, foreign aid and capital inflow channels," the central bank said in its latest quarterly report.
Latest statistics tallied by The Daily Star broadly indicate that global recession has cast shadows over the exports of several items such as shrimps, leather and leather goods, electronics, ceramic tableware, vegetables and other similar products.
Bangladesh formed a task force towards the end of 2008 to deal with the impact of the financial crisis and global recession. But so far it has not announced any stimulus package or other measures as seen in other Asian countries.
The country’ kept up export growth in ready-made garments as it ships out low-end products, which have relatively r high demand on the international mar-ket.
The Bangladesh taka has appreciated against many currencies such as the euro and Australian and Canadian dollars, making imports from those countries cheaper.
Remittance receipts in the July-October period of 2008 were up 36.5 percent, compared to the same period a year ago. Most remittance to Bangladesh comes from the Middle East.