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Is a mighty crash near?

If Zardari can make a swift surgical strike lasting a day or two, he might succeed. But if he succeeds then the reaction of the parties that are supporting the lawyer community and the cause of the CJP would need watching. A mighty clash between the political forces would ensue. This is something to be concerned about.

M.B. Naqvi
Some simple souls and some with not so simple souls have begun wailing that the hard won and fragile democracy in Pakistan is in trouble. It may collapse as a result of the President declaring an Emergency or the Army imposing another Martial Law. Why’
Because the two biggest ^parties are clashing head on over the emotive issues of the second reinstatement of the deposed Chief Justice of Pakistan and secondly to undo undemocratic measures that various dictators have introduced into the Constitution. The lawyers' community --much of the country's intelligentsia — and the second largest party in the country, i.e. Mian Nawaz Sharif s PML (N), alongwith one of the most well-organized and rich parties, Jamaate Is 1 ami, many smaller ethnic nationalist parties and the wild card: the followers of the supposedly ever more popular Imran Khan, the former cricketer are opposed by the main ruling party PPP, now run by President Asif Ali Zardari.
The PPP government is actually controlled by Zardari who captured his own party, the government and is running the whole show in a few . months. Although he is inef-
fectually being challenged by his PM. everyone knows who is the boss. Zardari is being supported to the hilt by the socalled Army-led “establishment” and various other parties already in the coalition with the PPP government.
He also enjoys support from the US and UK and it is known that the US and NATO do not like the deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. His record in their eyes is troublesome: he is apt to go on asking where are the so many 'disappeared' Pakistanis and other troublesome questions. They would not welcome his second return to head the apex court.
The clash arises from the lawyers' programme of Long March on March 12 from Karachi and other places to Islamabad which will be followed by a dharna of indefinite length on March 16 --until the Chief Justice is restored. The PML (N), JI and other parties have indicated they will not only make the Long March successful by letting their own workers to participate but would also join in the dhama.
That sounded ominous to Asif Ali Zardari and also his PPP-led government. High intrigue - - no secret any more -- is being deployed: On one side, PML (N) is wooing Pervez
Musharraf's PML(Q) to merge with it and if these two parties unite, PPP's prospects to rule will totally disappear. PML (N) was the mother party and some in PML (Q) will want to join it for struggling against PPP.
But the PML (Q) leaders are not willing to show their hand. Zardari is offering a concrete share in power - an attractive prospect. Joining the PML (N) means a long shot of current popularity but the near prospect also includes lathis and court cases by the police. They are not willing to risk that but
are trying to get a win-win bargain. If they join Asif Zardari, he will be able to either dismiss the Punjab government run by PML (N) through a no-confidence vote or even the Army takeover can happen. The PML (Q) will again be in clover. But this prospect makes many people squirm Why?
They sec their country being universally called a most dangerous country' where law and order has broken down over large parts. Diplomats of different backgrounds, including UN, are
being abducted in broad daylight and the government finds no clue. Taliban have just beheaded a Polish engineer. The NATO's two supply lines pass through Pakistan: One is Karachi-Chaman-Kandhar and rest of Afghanistan; the second route is from Karachi to Peshawar, Torkhum-Kabul and Bagram. That supply line through Peshawar has been interdicted repeatedly by Taliban and now by blowing up one of the bridges they temporarily stopped all supplies for sometime. These interdictions are frightening the Americans.
What the US and NATO will do keeps Pakistanis uneasy and troubled. The new Obama government is expected to take a tough line with Pakistan. It has bracketed Pakistan with Afghanistan with a clear understanding to go on fighting in Afghanistan until whatever victory they can achieve. This bracketing of Afghanistan includes the possibility of Afghan militants -- Taliban and others -- may succeed in seriously de-establising Pakistan.
Pakistan is commonly seen as a vulnerable state where its nuclear arsenal are said to be at risk Nobody spells out how vulnerable they really are. But the Pakistanis see themselves as being vulnerable in various ways. The Bush administration has made the idea familiar: America will not tolerate militants' sanctuaries in NWFP's tribal or settled areas. It is intervening and fighting inside Pakistan against al-Qaeda, Taliban and other Islamic militants. Obama will do the same some more. Obama will wind up US war in Iraq soon enough but would fight on in Afghanistan single-mindedly, no matter how long it takes. The potential steps involved in it can be fearsome. Pakistan can become a major target, if things go on worsening.
Aware citizens are perturbed. The problem is insistent that it will not do to lightly treat the lawyers' community, supported as it is by most of the intelligentsia plus the many political parties including the second largest one and also the most well-organized
religious party, Jamaate Islami: March 16 is being seen by the government as the D-day when it can be toppled one way or another.
To survive, it intends to make Nawaz Sharif pay for his line when he makes a show of strength of opposition parties and groups. Nawaz is already facing a case in the apex court, seems to have decided his future role: He will oppose PPP no matter what the cost. There are other tricks in Zardari's bag: he is stitching up an alliance with Musharraf's PML(Q). That will make the PPP government survive while probably dismissing or voting out the PML (N)'s provincial government in Lahore with thehelpofPML(Q).
Zardari is likely to make a strike before March 16. It can begin with the apex court disqualifying Nawaz Sharif from holding any elective office; this court is likely to act in line with Zardari's wishes. Then the ouster of PML (N) provincial government in Lahore will be easy. That would, in Zardari's view, puncture the strong support that PML (N) government could have given to the Long March as well as the dharna.
As for the dhrana itself, it would seem that he would employ some trickery or other and failing which he would crack down on the lawyers
physically and send them home by force. But the political battles that will ensue can conceivably make the Army-led establishment take strong action.
If Zardari can make a swift surgical strike lasting a day or two, he might succeed. But if he succeeds then the reaction of the parties that are supporting the lawyer community and the cause of the CJP would need watching. A mighty clash between the political forces would ensue. This is something to be concerned about.
It seems that Musharraf has been succeeded by another Musharraf because Asif Zardari is doing exactly as Musharraf would do in his place -- i.e. implement the ukase from Washington. America has great many stakes in Pakistan. Its war on Afghanistan turns on Pakistan government remaining a willing tool to do all that the Americans and the NATO planners want it to do. Apart from other matters like the difficulties in Pakistan remaining with the safe supply route for western forces in Afghanistan, the various insurgencies in Pakistan will have to be ended. Who will do that and how is the question.
MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan