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Bangladesh: Geostrategic challenges and opportunities-Part I

Air Cdre (Retd) Ishfaq Ilahi Choudhury
Introduction
Geostrategy refers to the study of geographical and political factors that together shape the political and military planning of a nation. Based on geographical position of the state, it involves “planning and assigning means for achieving national, political, and military objectives". It describes where a state concentrates its effort by projecting military power and diplomatic activities. Since the end of WW II, the subject of geostrategy has been of increasing interest to the politicians, diplomats, academics and the military leaders. A sound understanding of Bangladesh's geostrategy and the challenges and opportunities that it presents is important for future planning. The subject becomes all the more relevant as Bangladesh enters a new era of democratic administration that comes with a promise of change change for the better.
Regional Scenario
China and India are emerging as major economic and military powers, destined to play increasingly active role in the global politics. Whether they become partners in peace or rivals in the arena of conflict could be a matter of speculation. Pakistan, the second most important country in South Asia, is beset with internal chaos and violence, threatening its latest tryst with democracy. Sri Lanka is bleeding from two decades of vicious civil war. Nepal is transiting from absolute monarchy to democracy spearheaded by a Maoist Communist Party that, after fighting guerrilla warfare for decades, came to power by winning a free election. Myanmar, our neighbour in the southeast, is ruled by a xenophobic military junta that has kept its people suppressed for decades. The violence and lawlessness in Afghanistan have global security implications. The rising tide of Islamic mili-
tancy has hit hard the sociopolitical structure of a number of countries in the region including Bangladesh. Despite economic gains, violence in the region is more than it was in the recent past The danger accentuates when we consider that China, India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed neighbours with long-standing border disputes between them.
Geographical Importance Bangladesh straddles between South and Southeast Asia. Lying between the Himalayas in the north and the Bay of Bengal in the south, it offers the only land route connecting the two regions. Any invasion into South Asia from the East must pass through Bangladesh - the Japanese attempted to do that during the World War II. Bangladesh's close proximity to both India and China adds further to its geographic importance.
India envelops Bangladesh on three sides; similarly, Bangladesh almost dissects the northeastern India from the heartland. The narrow Shiliguri corridor serves as the only land link between India and its seven northeastern states, known as the “Seven Sisters.” The geography creates a sense of isolation and encourages separatist tendencies among the people of NE states. Lying only 30 miles north of Bangladesh is the strategically important Nathu La pass that connects India with China through Tibet. During the 1962 India-China Border War, Nathu La came in focus as probable point of Chinese ingress. Its fall could lead to cutting off Assam from the rest of India. Fortunately, Nathu La has become, in recent years, a peaceful landport catering to growing IndoChina trade.
Map showing Shiliguri Corridor
Map Showing Shiliguri Corridor north of Bangladesh (Google Earth)
Satellite Photo of Nathu La on India-China Border
Despite rapprochement with India, the Chinese have not recognised the so-called “McMahon Line” or renounced claim on the Indian state of ArunachaL They continue to occupy Aksai Chin that India claims to be part of Indian Kashmir. Thus, in the unlikely event of an India-China conflict, the access to or denial of the use of Bangladesh territory to the belligerent forces will be of utmost strategic importance. As India becomes an economic powerhouse its need for shorter, faster, and more diverse means of communication between the northeast and the rest of India becomes more urgent and therefore, the need to transit across Bangladesh by surface too.
In the south, the Bay of Bengal is of strategic importance regionally and globally. It spans the vital maritime route between SE Asia and ME It provides the sea link to a billion people and half dozen countries. Its energy and fishery resources are also important for the region. Bangladesh has vital interest in the Bay, but her maritime boundary claim is disputed by her neighbours India and Myanmar. Peaceful delimitation of maritime boundary is of vital interest to Bangladesh.
Bangladesh's Strategic Concerns
Land and water are vital issues in Bangladesh. Unplanned urban and industrial growth takes away rich agricultural land. Although the land is fertile, the productivity is low due to poor agro-management. Bangladesh is endowed with the highest per capita availability of fresh water in the world, yet water, like land, is badly managed. There is tremendous wastage as well as rampant pollution of fresh water in the country. While the demand for fresh water continues to rise, its supply dwindles. Some of the major rivers are being diverted upstream in India. The Ganges or Tista, once mighty rivers, have reduced to trickles. India's plan to dam Borak River at Tipaimukh in Assam
will cause serious water shortage in the Meghna basin. The Chinese government's plan to divert the Brahmaputra could be the last nail in the coffin. The Brahmaputra alone carries more than 60% of the total fresh water apart from most of the alluvial deposits in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has been negotiating with India on the sharing of common rivers, in case of the Brahmaputra, Bangladesh and India need a common strategy vis-a-vis China.
Bangladesh is endowed with natural gas and coal two vital energy sources. Yet there is a need to efficiently plan for their exploration and exploitation. There is also need to develop alternative sources of energies such as solar, wind, biogas etc. Our industrial growth continues to suffer due to shortage of electricity; we need to generate more power. Meanwhile, a regional power grid could be established to import power from countries such as Bhutan, which have tremendous potential for hydroelectricity. Water’ and energy could be the two most important areas of regional cooperation or confrontation.
On the economic front, we need to attract foreign investment including investment from countries such as India and China. In fact, economic interlocking makes war between nations impossible, just as it happened in the European Union (EU). Business people have made it impossible for the politicians to go to war in Europe a continent with the most violent past. After all, a huge factory in Germany may be owned by the British, or a British car plant may be owned by the French. Who will bomb whom? Greater economic cooperation and integration within SAARC and then beyond could ensure an era of peace and prosperity' for the whole region. While domestic issues are our prime concern, our external relations cannot be ignored.
The author is a freelancer