& çâÌæÚUæð´ ·¤è ¥ôÚU Îð¹Ùæ ÁæÚUè ÚU¹ð´ ¥ÍæüÌ ¥ÂÙð ÜÿØ ÂÚU ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´Ð ãæÚU Ù ×æÙð´, €UØô´ç·¤ ·¤æ× ·¤ÚUÙð âð ¥æÂ·¤ô ©gðàØ ·¤è Âýæç# ãôÌè ãñ ¥õÚU ÁèßÙ ·¤æ ¹æÜèÂÙ ÎêÚU ãôÌæ ãñÐ ÖÜð ãè ÁèßÙ ×ð´ ç·¤ÌÙè Öè ·¤çÆÙæ§ü €UØô´ Ù ¥æ°, çÁ™ææâæ ¥õÚU ©ˆâæã ÕÙæ° ÚU¹ð´Ð ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´, ÜÿØ ã×ðàææ ¥æÂ·Ô¤ Âæâ ãôÌð ãñ´ çÁ‹ãð´ ÂæÙð ·Ô¤ çÜ° ÂýØæâ ¥æÂ ·¤Öè Öè àæéM¤ ·¤ÚU â·¤Ìð ãñ´Ð

Singapore’s growth may sink to -5pc

Ann/The Straits Times
Singapore has downgraded its growth forecast again amid what it brands the "sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession" the country has ever faced.
What used to be the worst-case scenario a few weeks ago has now become the best outcome with the economy tipped to contract by between -5 and -2 per cent this year, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Wednesday.
The new figures reflect just how fast the global economy is deteriorating: just three weeks ago, the MTI forecast that gross domestic product (GDP) growth would come in at -2 to 1 per cent instead of between -1 and 2 per cent.
A 5 per cent slump this year would be Singapore's worst, beating the record of -3.8 per cent seen preindependence in 1964. The 2001 recession saw a 2.4 per cent contraction.
The MTI said the downward revision was largely due to a faster and deeper decline in global economic activity, and stronger ripple effects on key sectors.
Said second permanent secretary Ravi Menon yesterday: "What took us by surprise,..is the depth of the deterioration in global economic activity and, second the spillover it has on the
region and Singapore.
"Typically you do not see this kind of collapse in trade so early in the cycle."
Downgrades in consensus forecasts for key economies such as the European Union and those in Asia, plus poor retail sales and jobs figures from the United States also added to the more pessimistic outlook.
Menon said the upper end of the forecast is based on a "V-shaped" rebound of the Singapore economy in the second half of this year, while the -5 level stems from an "extended U-shaped" scenario with no "clear recovery" this year.
"Past recessions in Singapore have always ended with V-shaped recoveries... but the nature of the current recession is different and the likelihood of a sharp rebound appears low," he added.
OCBC Bank economist Selena Ling said: "They appear to have bitten the bullet and included a worst -case scenario of -5 per cent, which supposedly covers most of the potential downsiderisks."
Dr Chua Hak Bin, Citigroup's head of Singapore equity research, added: "You also probably want to paint a scenario th at could be fairly dire if you want to actually ask the public, the Parliament and the President for the right to tap on the reserves."