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Why they won

The unsung hero of this year's election might well be the new voter list which has discarded the 12.7 million ghost voters and may prohibit fake voting, thanks to the photo on the list and absence of dummy candidates.

SYEED AHAMED and JYOTI RAHMAN
C AN statistics predict the winner of yesterday's national election? Well, based on previous results, it is evident that Four-Party Alliance and Grand Alliance have some 80 to 90 seats each where they have their respective strongholds. Result of the rest 110-120 swing seats will depend on five major determinants of this year's election: Redistricting, New and Young Votes, AntiIncumbency Votes, Alliance Factor, and NoVote.
This article will explore the plus and minuses of each alliance with respect to these determinants to help predict the final winner.
Redistricting (55 seats)
To better reflect the current population patterns, the Election Commission has redrawn boundaries of 133 constituencies. The redistricting can affect the election in a number of ways by reallocating the winning margins and dividing the vote banks and political strongholds. To understand this impact, we have regrouped the union level results of 2001 national election into new electoral boundaries and replayed the final result. The exercise showed that the redistricting has affected both the major parties/alliances and there is no evidence of any gerrymandering.
For instance, in 2001 election, AL won
the Mymensingh-1 by a modest margin, where four-party alliance won. the neigh-, bouring Netrokona 5 (then Mymensingh with Netrokona) by a larger margin. As a result of the re-demarcation, a portion of Netrokona-5’s winning margin was merged with Mymensingh-1 making the four-party alliance as the net winner in both constituencies. On the other hand, major restructuring of the then Dhaka-6 has divided the vote banks ground network into Dhaka-8 and Dhaka-9 where once winner four-party alliance might face a delicate challenge.
There are about 55 constituencies where major redistricting has made the campaign more difficult. The alliance which could reorganise their political network within this shortest possible time will gain the benefits from these 55 seats.
New and young votes (35-40 seats)
More th an one quarter of total electoral seats were decided by less than 10 per cent winning margin. Now with 32 per cent first time voters, the winner of this election will definitely need the endorsement of the new and young voters. The alliances also acknowledged this factor by nominating more young candidates and promoting a pro-youth digital Bangladesh. However, there are some 35-40 seats where anti-thug, anti-war criminal, and anti-autocrat campaigns will have significant impact on the minds of new
voters. So, the alliance that comparatively compromised more to these sects and nominated more immoral candidates will suffer more in this election.
Anti-incumbency vote (40-50 seats)
There is always a general anti-incumbency trend in some constituencies. There are 50 seats won by BNP by 1991 which went to AL in 1996, and 89 seats AL won in 1996 that went to BNP in 2001. There are 37seats that went from BNP to AL in 1996 and then back to four-party alliance in 2001. These all reflect a strong anti-incumbency trend during the last three elections.
The crucial question is, who is the incumbent, and who is the opposition? In the last two elections, the answers were obvious. This time around it is more complicated. On the one hand, the AL campaign is portraying itself as the opposition. But on the other hand, BNP is making the case that it has been out of power for the past two years. Hence, result of these seats will depend on their respective success in portraying themselves as the main opponent.
Alliance factor (20-25 seats)
The result of BNP-Jamat alliance was evident in the 1996 election. Following the success, Jatiya party has aligned to AL and left wing parties to form a grand alliance. Will the JP voters join the alliance the way Jamat voters did in 1996? Hypothetically, there are two types of JP voters.
First there are voters who support JP because of its leadership or key personalities. Hence the pro-Ershad voters of northern district are likely to vote for the grand alliance.
Secondly, there are the anti-AL voters who voted BNP in 1991 and 2001. but voted JP in 1996 out of an anti-incumbency feeling. What will these voters do? With Ershad
closely aligning himself with AL symboli- *. cally -- references to Bangabandhu's, dream for example - the anti-AL feeling may dominate. If BNP can downplay the' anti-incumbency factor, some may go back to BNP. Otherwise, they may go for No Vote (i.e. "none of the above’ vote). There are , some 20 to 25 seats where this alliance •, issuecanbethedecidingfactor.
NoVote (15-20 seats)
It is not clear how the No Vote concept will play this year. First of all, the requirement of a 50 per cent No Vote (as oppose to plural- , iry) has diminished the effectiveness of this tool. Also, it is not clear whether the candidates will be barreci from the re-election if No Vote wins the 50 per cent.
But more importantly, while No Vote is' the last resort to avoid the thugs and criminal candidates, a ’Nader-affect” may_ change the scenario for bad. It is evident' that voters who always vote the wrong ■ candidate do not go for alternative. As a 7 result, votes of concerned voters get divided by the No Vote or by alternative 4 candidates and results in the win of a rela-'3 lively bad candidate. This is how a vote tq^ Ralph Nader helped Bush win the election;^ in US. We hope this will not be the case inlo Bangladesh.
However the unsung hero of this year's ' election might well be the new voter list ’ which has discarded the 12.7 million ghost voters and may prohibit fake voting, thanks to the photo on the list and absence of dummy candidates.
Note: This was written before counting of?, votes was completed. The result will be.-analysed in greater detail in a follow up ' piece.
Syeed Ahamed is a policy analyst and Jyoi Rahman is a -macroeconomist