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Manifesto and money

Abdul Bayes
SHEIKH Hasina announced the AL's election manifesto in a televised session on Friday. The nation was eagerly waiting to see what Al. had to say on the future courses of action, especially, taking into consideration the domestic and international socio-political and economic crisis. We shall try to pick up few tilings from the submission.
Good five years
In the most contemporary comparisons, perhaps, it would not be too excessive if the five-year rule of Awami League (1996-2001) is dubbed as a "golden period" for Bangladesh. This judgment from the objective analysis of a social scientist is based on various documents of the government and the donors.
Take the case of economic growth rate: averaging 5.2 per cent plus from a feeble 4.4 per cent during 1991-95 and below 4 per cent in the years before. Agricultural sector grew at about 5 per cent compared to 1.6 per cent of 1991-95 and 2.5 per cent of earlier periods.
The price of coarse rice averaged at Tk.lO/kg against the then average agricultural wage rate of Tk.60/day. Real income started to fall sharply since 2004 and now a labourer can buy just 3 kg of rice (required for a 6 member household) with the wage that he gets and is left with no extra money
to meet other essential expenses.
The total electricity generation reached 4300 MW within five years of AL from meagre 1700 MW in tire previous rule. The agricultural sectorthe hub of the poorwitnessed no major turbulence in the face of strong monitoring and satisfactory storage in government centres. Cash transfers to the old and widows started during that period. Poverty during that time declined at 1.5 percentage points per year but, from 2004, poverty has been increasing at roughly 2 per cent per annum. Only between 2004 and 2008, about 2 million rural households, embracing about 10 million people, joined the already existing vast pool of the poor.
Vision and mission
The AL chief disclosed short, medium and long-term objectives to be fulfilled if voted to power. The 2021 vision portrays Bangladesh at its 50th birth anniversary. A politician without a vision is like an architect without any plan. We shall, however, deal mostly with short and medium-term matters.
We can possibly underscore five major areas: (a) maintaining price stability and ensuring for the poor a reasonable price for food, (b) maintaining macro stability in the face of global recession, (c) effective steps against corruption, (d) generating 5000 MW electricity by next three years and 7000MWby2013, and (e) poverty reduction
through inducing dynamism in the agricultural and rural life.
I think fulfillment of the above-mentioned objectives within a span of five years is quite feasible. And any government reaching those targets would be hailed. Price stability is more a matter of judicious management in terms of forecasts of demand and supply, managing proper storage and a mesh between public and private sector participation in marketing.
The down turn in energy prices recently might make things easier. Generation of additional 1000MW within three years is quite feasible, as AL has done so in its previous tenure.
The emphasis on agricultural and rural development as sources of poverty reduction is a timely thought and any future government must focus on this. Time has come when agricultural sector should regain its lost glory. A boost in agricultural outputs, appropriate incentives for exporters and remitters, and a lower level of inflation could help keep macro-economic stability. Needless to mention, institutional strengthening of ACC and transparency in government transactions could contain corruption, if not eliminate it.
Money missing?
Sheikh Hasina quite convincingly placed her visions and missions before the nation but, as her critics would argue, where would the money come from to reach the goals by 2021 ? Well, this is the million dollar question to be left to her to answer. But as a citizen of this country, I can say a few words.
Of course, money matters the most in looking at a Bangladesh that AL foresees in 2021. It is more so in a country where a finance minister serving 11 years in a government is reported to have paid no income taxes; in a country where number of private cars exceeds the number of TIN holders. So, the first step is to mobilise the untapped and unpaid taxes through NBR. That would also require an “economic government "smaller in size but large in productivity.
Money could also be mobilised from outside if Bangladesh could develop productive projects with positive social and economic rates of returns. And, finally, if Bangladesh could attain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent per annum (not at all infeasible given marginal improvements in governance) , the growth generated would bring in more sources of finance.
Abdul Bayes is a Professor of Economics at Jahangmagar University He can be reached at (abduibayes@yahoo.com)