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Will Obama repair US-Russia relations?

Barrister Harun ur Rashid
THERE is a new hope and expectation that US-Russia relations that plummeted during the Bush administration will be improved. The US Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice, who earned a Ph-D on her study on Communist Russia, could not shed the Cold War mentality and as a result the Bush administration provoked Russia at every possible opportunity.
To substantiate the above proposition, some of the actions of President Bush may deserve to be mentioned below:
First, in 2002, Bush abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972. Washington and Moscow signed the treaty to slow the nuclear arms race. The ABM Treaty barred both super-•powers from deploying national defenses against long-range ballistic missiles and from building the foundation for such a defense.
The treaty was based on the premise that if either superpower constructed a strategic defense, the other would build up its offensive nuclear forces to offset the defense. The superpowers would therefore quickly be put on a path toward a never-ending offen • sive-defensive arms race as each tried to balance its counterpart's action
While abrogating the treaty, President George W. Bush, issued a short written statement the day the
treaty expired. In it, he noted that the treaty was “now behind us,” and he reiterated his commitment to deploy missile defenses “as soon as possible" to protect themselves against "growing missile threats."
Second, came the expansion of Nato, contrary to an agreement between Washington and Russia that Nato's expansion would not be a disadvantage to Moscow. NATO has deviated from its original charter and assumed responsibility on a global scale for everything that happens. For example, Nato troops are in Afghanistan.
Third, the Bush administration proposed deployment of missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic to the annoyance of Russia. The deployment of missile defense base in Poland appears to be an attempt to chip away at Russia's influence in the region.
Russia is angered because it believes that the deployment of the missile defense system in these countries is meant for Russia and not for Iran's missiles. It seems that the US wants to encircle Russia with its allies to keep Russia "within the box”.
Georgian conflict
The US support for Georgian conflict with Russia has exacerbated the tension between the two countries. Russia feels about Georgia the same as the US views Central America - its own back-
yard. Georgia has become Russia's Cuba.
At the recent Nato meeting the US Secretary of State promised to "isolate" Russia. Some American politicians have threatened to expel Russia from the Group-8, to abolish Nato-Russian Council and to keep Russia out ofWTO.
According to former Soviet President Gorbachev, these are "empty threats. Do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lecture?" Meanwhile, Russia has cut off its military cooperation with Nato.
The relation between Russia and the US are at its lowest point after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This does not augur well for international peace and security. The UN Security Council is deadlocked because of veto powers of the US and Russia. Nothing can move in the UN.
Hope of new relations with the US under Obama
Soon after the election of Presidentelect Barack Obama, Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev on 15th November expressed hope that US-Russia relations would Improve provided the new US President would scrap some of controversial policies against Russia.
Russia has been angered by the US plans to build missile defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland. Russia wants the US plans to be
reversed.
If the US proceeds with the missile defense plans, Russia would deploy missiles in Kaliningrad, a part of Russian territory sandwiched between mainland Russia and Lithuania.
He reportedly said: "There is no trust in the Russia-US relations... the trust we need.” He was in Washington to attend the summit meeting on 15th November that brought together the leaders of G-20 countries on the financial crisis. Medvedev said that he was willing to discuss the issue and would meet Obama soon after inauguration day, January 20.
Observers say that Obama has been put into a difficult situation by his predecessor. Reversing the programme now, after the Bush administration had concluded agreement with Poland and the Czech Republic could be seen as backing down in the face of Russian threats.
Some analysts however believe that there is a way out for President-elect Obama because the missile defense system has not been technologically perfected. Some military experts say that at the present rate of progress, reliable missile defense is 50 years away.
The missile defense system, according to many US writers, is a product of military industry lobbyists. Many Democrats are not sure whether the missile defense system will work because it needs further tests. Some military experts say that rigorous tests should continue to make it effective and construction of radars in Poland and the Czech Republic is too early and is misconceived.
Obama could take a stand that unless the system is effective, it is of no use constructructing radars and other facilities while testing in the US continues. In that way, Obama may diffuse the situation.
Obama's readiness to engage adversaries is a sign of hardheaded realism. The history of diplomacy makes amply clear that longstanding rivalries usually require engagementoften at the highest levelsto reach resolution.
After eight years of dangerous bunker mentality in Washington, Obamas's plans for engaging friends and enemies alike offers the best hope for cleaning up the woeful mess that is left behind by the Bush administration. On 8th November Obama telephoned Medvedev to underscore the need for constructive relationship with Russia. The repair of US-Russia relations is important for global peace and security.
The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Genova