The resilience of Bangladesh's economy and financial markets so far in 2008 to the global financial crisis must be commended.

Indeed, the country has a history of exceeding expectations. Its achievements over the past 37 years has been impressive, most notably in its emergence as a major textile/RMG exporter as well as sharp increase in manpower exports and remittances.

More broadly, the low volatility and consistency of growth in tire past decade, despite political instability and natural disasters is a testament to a dynamic and entrepreneurial private sector.

But this is not a time for complacency. The darkening global recessionary storm clouds amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s will provide the incoming elected government in 2009 with a uniquely challenging economic environment.

Demand conditions in our key export markets will continue to weaken over the course of the next 12 months. Capital flows to Emerging Markets are also likely to diminish as risk aversion dominates which will make attracting foreign investment challenging.

The good news is that unlike many of its Asian neighbours, prudent macroeconomic management leaves both monetary and fiscal policy tools available to respond with either a rate cut, exchange rate depreciation or targeted fiscal injections to exporters if the economy does begin to feel the effects of the global economicslowdown.

Bangladesh remains well poised to continue to outperform the rest of the world with any slowdown in 2009 likely to be modest and temporary. While keeping short-term stimulus measures available makes sense, the real focus should also be on the next elected government pursuing an economic reform agenda in areas like power, infrastructure, export diversification and attracting FDI that will raise the structural longterm growth rates for Bangladesh.

It is with this goal that on December 6 the FBCCI published a report "Maximising Growth: A Private Sector Vision". I was privileged to be involved in the publi-

cation along with several CEOs of some of Bangladesh's leading companies, senior researchers, as well as a number of FBCCI directors.

In launching the report, the intention of FBCCI and all the contributors was to layout an Economic Roadmap for the next government that offered 37 policy recommendations across a broad range of issues.

The objective was to put Bangladesh firmly on the path towards inclusive growth in excess of 8 percent. In addition to longer-term strategic goals, we also outline a number of key actionable policy decisions that should be implemented as soon as the new government takes office that we believe will catalyse the economy and provide momentum to a new agenda of economic reform as well as Public-Private Partnership (PPP).

The FBCCI held a seminar on December 6 to launch the paper that was attended by almost 100 business leaders, politicians, multilateral agencies and embassies as well as the press. I will not discuss the contents of the report itself (please email if any reader would like an electronic version of the report) but rather how best to maximise the effectiveness of the initiative in genuinely acting as a catalyst for economic change.

Indeed, one issue that came up a number of the times at the seminar is what gives this initiative any better chance of success, in terms of adoption by the incoming elected government, versus the numerous previous initiatives that began with the extensive work of the Centre for Policy Dialogue in the 1990s and culminated with the comprehensive and detailed Nagorik Committee report of 2006. How do we get future policymakers to listen? Here are a few observations: 1) Itisimportant to make economic reform “populist". Unless solving the major growth bottlenecks such as power/infrastructure and delivering a more dynamic economy matters to the average voter in towns and villages, why should politicians, who are naturally focused on re-election, care?

As a former president of DCCI

mentioned at the December 6 seminar, we need a theme such as $1000 per capita in 2020 that the broader electorate can identify with. The media will play a critical role in this “popularisation" of economic change; 2) It is important to re-inforce the message that problems such as energy, increasing agricultural productivity or attracting FDI have solutions there are not facts of economic life that Bangladesh must deal with; 3) The private sector needs to use its considerable influence as the

primary1 wealth generator to maintain the pressure for economic change. Indeed, many members of FBCCI and other leading chambers are also standing for elected office and need to maintain the pressure for change in the new parliament.

Some countries, most notably Malaysia with former PM Mahathir Mohamad, Singapore with Lee Kuan Yew, India with Manmohan Singh have an economic visionary who drives change. But other countries such as Korea or Taiwan have a

collective economic vision driven from a number of leading companies in the private sector.

China and India, both have extremely detailed five-year economic plans. But in addition, I am struck by the degree to which every minister and senior civil servant in those countries is familiar with the details of such five-year plans, both the goals and how they are to be achieved.

It is clear that the next government needs to urgently formulate a similar Bangladesh National Economic Vision and Plan in partnership with the private sector. Such a plan needs to have all-part}’ support so that we move away from the economic policy volatility to a national consensus on the way forward that is independent of the political cycle.

The upcoming National Elections and the return to an elected democracy’ will be rightly welcomed both by the civil society within Bangladesh and international community’. There will be an expectation that we move towards more well-functioning political system and away from the confrontational and frictional politics that has characterised much of Bangladesh's history:

But there will also be substantial economic expectations for the next government to become an agent of economic reform that can unlock Bangladesh's economic potential.

The FBCCI report was a focused attempt by the private sector itself to constructively engage and offer policy recommendations to the new government. However, as authors of the report at the seminar were keen to emphasise, this is the beginning of an interactive process between the political parties, the civil service, the private sector, think tanks and the donor agencies to collectively come up with a National Vision document for Bangladesh that can put it on the path to 8 percent* inclusive growth. Even amidst the current economic gloom, 1 believe we have every grounds for optimism that Bangladesh can emerge from the crisis stronger.

The writer is the managing partner of Asian Tiger Capital Partners and welcomes feedbackatifty.isiam@at-capital.com