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Of moon sighting and Eid dates

Prof. Dr. Anwoarul Karim
NEW Moon is the lunar phase when the moon's unilluminated side is facing the earth; the moon is not visible from the earth. The moment is unique and does not depend on location: The new moon at the moment of conjunction in ecliptic longitude with the sun is invisible from earth.
The specific dates and time of future moon phases are already known or can be calculated. According to internet claim, future moon phases to the year 4999 are already available whereas actual visibility of the new crescent moon is not accurately known even for the next mon th! The time interval between successive new moons is 29.5305882 days. This number is called the synodic period or "lunation" and is relative to the sun.
Scientists have not yet been able to set a standard by which one can be certain of the evening when a new crescent moon will appear. "It is not possible to predict accurately the dates on which the new crescent moon will first be seen each month...": Royal Greenwich Observatory, England.
Thus there is no scientific way in which the requirements of Islam, i.e. the beginning of each lunar month with the first appearance of the thin crescent of the new moon after sunset over the western horizon, can be met at the moment, ahead of actual visibility.
The earliest astronomical criterion for ascertaining the crescent's first visibility goes back to Babylonian era. The simple criterion based on the observational data was used by early astronomers. The Babylonian criterion is more a rule of thumb which may be stated as follows: 1. At local sunset, moon's age must be more than 24 hours i.e. from the time of conjunction to the time of evening of observation. 2. Moonset should take place at least about 48 minutes after sunset.
New moon for Zil Hajjah 1429 from the date of the phases of the moon (from 2008 Yearbook of Astronomy edited by Patric Moore, Macmillan, London Nl 9RR) occurred on November 27, 2008 at 16 55 GMT i.e, 22 55 Bangladesh time. Using sunset and moonset data at Dhaka on that date, one finds this conjunction took place only 5 hrs and 45 mins after sunset and the moon set 28 mins before sunset; as such new crescent moon's visibility at Dhaka on November 27,2008 did not arise at all. And according to the moon sighting report of Islamic Foundation, Dhaka, the corresponding date happened to be 28th Zil Qudah, 1429. For two days the moon's age and moonset lag time at Dhaka are shown in Table I
TABLE 1: LUNAR DATA AT DHAKA FOR 2 DAYS AFTER NEW MOON month date day moonset sunset moonset lag moons age NOVEMBER 28 FRI 17 29 17 10 19 mm 18hr15iw
NOVEMBER 29 SAT 18 19 17 11 68mln 42hr16 mm
Thus the new crescent moon for Zil Hajjah 1429 is to be visible at Dhaka on November 29,2008 and therefore the month of Zil I lajjah is to begin on November 30,2008 Sunday. And in that case Eidul Azha will be celebrated in Bangladesh, Insha Allah, on Tuesday 9 December 2008.
Prof. Or Anwoarul Kanm is ax-professor. King AMul Aziz University. Jeddah