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What to watch for

Nate Silver
6 PM EST (4 AM Bangladesh Standard Time). Polls close in portions of Indiana and Kentucky.
Traditionally, these are the first states to get called by the networks, spotting the Republicans a quick 19 points in the Electoral College. This year, however, is liable to be a little bit different. Indiana is far more competitive than usual, and is probably the state with the greatest disparity in ground games: the Obama campaign has 42 field offices open there, whereas McCain neglected the state entirely until recently.
If the state is called before 7 PM for John McCain, that probably means we're in for a long night. If, on the other hand, the state is called for Obama in the first hour after the polls close, that could indicate that the force of Obama’s field operation has been underestimated, and that McCain is in for a catastrophically poor evening.
7 PM EST (5 AM BST). Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire.
Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow — he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West.
Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to over-perform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history.
On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might over-estimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where Obama was famously upset by Hillary Clinton during the primaries. If McCain holds Obama to within about five points in New Hampshire --closer than any current polls —we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect.
7:30 PM EST (5:30 AM BST). Polls close In Ohio and North Carolina.
The dynamic to look for in these states involves early voting: more than twice as many people have voted early in North Carolina as did in 2004, and nearly three times as many in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio. Recent polling indicates that Obama may have a lead of20-30 points among early voters in Ohio and a 10-20 point lead in North Carolina. If Republican turnout is at all depressed on Election Day -- because of anything from bad weather to low morale - that may be too large a deficit for McCain to make up. 8 PM EST (6 AM BST). Polls close in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Missouri.
Use caution when interpreting the results from these three states; Missouri in particular is notorious for nearly having been called prematurely both in the 2006 senate race and in this year's Democratic primary.
In each state, Barack Obama will rack up huge vote totals in the cities (Philadelphia, Detroit and St. Louis respectively) while trying to hold his own in the rest of the state. If the city numbers come in first, Obama's margins will be exaggerated. If the rural numbers come in first, Obama's prospects will be much better than they appear.
But Pennsylvania in particular is the one to watch. If Barack Obama holds onto Pennsylvania — the only state where John McCain seems to have been closing the gap over the last week of the campaign - then winning virtually any red state (Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri) would probably clinch the election for him.
9 PM EST (7 AM BST). Polls close in Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Wisconsin and Minnesota should be called fairly quickly for Obama; if they aren't, that's a sign that something has gone truly wrong for the Democratic ticket. New Mexico looks like a safe Obama-state too, but since its vote-counting is notoriously slow, it may take longer to call.
Colorado, meanwhile, is the last of what I'd characterise as this year's "Big Three" states (the others are Pennsylvania and Virginia). If Pennsylvania and Virginia have split their votes (and Obama hasn't picked up Ohio or Florida), then Obama probably wins if he wins Colorado, and loses if he doesn't.
10 PM EST (8 AM BST). Polls close in Nevada, Iowa, Montana and New York.
This is the earliest point at which the race might be officially called for Barack Obama -- there just aren't enough electoral votes out there, even if he's swept every swing state, to get him to 270 until New York's 31 come in. But assuming that we don't know the outcome of the election by this time, Nevada, where Obama has expanded his lead and where much of the state has already voted, could be Obama's ace in the hole -- possibly offsetting a loss in Pennsylvania if paired with other pickups like Colorado and Virginia. The key area to watch in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno), which John Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 but where the Obama campaign has registered thousands of new voters. If Obama wins Washoe, that means the state -- and probably the country -- ishis.
Nato Silver Is tho creator of FiveThirtyEight.com, a popular political blog.
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