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What it means for us

Shahpar Selim
Lastly, let me remind you that everything Obama and McCain say are old fashioned campaign rhetoric - seasonal and on the side of winning votes. Obama has shown he can flip-flop on issues, as can McCain. So even if they are saying the wrong/right things before November 4, they might change their minds and do the wrong/right things after inauguration.
The US is going through what is arguably the most important election in its recent history. Barack Obama looks set to win, and most Bangladeshis I know will be delighted. But what would Obama's election, or McCain's, for that matter, actually mean for this country?
Bangladeshis should support either Obama or McCain based on what their respective mandates mean for our economic and environmental well-being. Bangladesh should support the candidate that fits its interests as a secular country' with massive developmental challenges.
When it comes to South Asian foreign policy' we have heard from Obama and McCain on the recent Indian nuclear deal, and, of course, Pakistan is never far away. But what do the foreign and trade policies of Obama and McCain mean for Bangladesh? Unsurprisingly, there is very little to go on. During this campaign, how many times have we heard the word "Bangladesh"?
In fact, McCain has solidly kept quiet on US international trade issues (is he hoping to make it up as he goes along?). Given how little has been articulated by the candidates, Bangladesh should be cautious and read from the candidates' voting records: given the overall economic recession, no deal will go through that does not have America’s best interests at heart.
Bangladesh should be cautiously watching the new administration's take on key textile issues - such as monitoring the withdrawal of Chinese RMG exports into the US market on January 1; US support for the rules of origin and yarn forward policies that favour sourcing of yarns from the US over cheaper yarns used by Bangladeshi factories; US support for the Berry Amendment that requires the US Defense Department to only source textiles made in the US; US response to Chinese currency manipulations with regards to Chinese RMG; pro-America trade ’enforcement efforts; and the Doha Round negotiations.
The fate of Bangladeshi RMG already hangs on powerful trade and textile lobby groups operating in Washington. The US National Council of Textile Organizations (a US interest lobby group) recently wrote to the candidates asking for their mandates. While McCain is yet to respond, Obama replied in a letter to the council in a letter dated October 24: "My trade policy rests on that same belief in change. Our country can benefit from trade, but I will insist on a trade policy that will work for all Americans. That means opening markets abroad for our manufactured exports, and including enforceable labour and environmental standards in free trade agreements. It also means strong enforcement of our trade remedy laws at home and of our trade rights abroad."
Bangladeshi RMG owners should interpret this message with caution — while Obama is against the massive current account surpluses accumulated by China by currency manipulation, this may mean that his administration might be open to Bangladeshi RMG imports because of our LDC status, however, RMG producers like India and Bangladesh also artificially devalue their home currency to remain competitive — does this mean that we might be next?
McCain has a clear record of voting for free trade, which will be beneficial for Bangladeshi RMG (88% of the time he voted against creating trade barriers, while Obama has done so only 36% of the time). Obama
supports intensive monitoring of textile imports, the Berry Amendment, and the yarn forward rule, and strict monitoring of free trade agreements for American interests.
Bangladeshi RMG is heavily dependent on trade agreements - the most recent being the NPDA (New Partnership for Development Act). While a Democrat senator is pushing for NPDA duty-free access for Bangladeshi RMG into the US market, the new Obama regime may potentially be less enthusiastic about trade liberalisation in the current recessionary mode. Already the NPDA has run into trouble as apparel exporting countries under AGOA are opposing the entry of Cambodia- and Bangladesh-made trousers, knit and non-knit shirts (worth about 70% of our RMG exports) into the US.
As it is, with the looming recession, prospects for "cheap and basic" clothes from Bangladesh face a harsh squeeze — the lower and middle classes in the US are expected to reduce consumption, which will directly hit the Bangladeshi RMG segment. In this situation, what will happen to social compliance is anybody's guess. What will be the next US administration's point of view on this is a billion dollar question. How much of their insistence on social compliance will be
genuine concern backed up by fair prices paid for compliant labour, and how much of it will be short-hand for trade protectionism?
Sad to say, Bangladesh has no clear indication whether McCain or Obama will be better for our largest export sector.
Lastly, let me remind you that like Bangladeshi politicians, everything Obama and McCain say are old fashioned campaign rhetoric - seasonal and on the side of winning votes. Obama has shown he can flipflop on issues, as can McCain. So even if they are saying the wrong/right tilings before November 4, they might change their minds and do the wrong/right things after inauguration.
The reader may interpret the previous sentence picking the combination of words that give you the most peace of mind. It would be great to have a black American president who is less racist, intellectually challenged, morally corrupt, and militarily adventuristic than Bush, yet his Senate voting records make him a less triumphant choice from the Bangladeshi viewpoint than popularly imagined.
Shahpar Selim is a Doctoral candidate at the London School of Economics and Political Science.