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McCain’s last stand

Mir Mahfuz ur Rahman
The handling of the economic crisis will probably cost McCain the presidency. It will cause a generational shift in Congress. Younger people, especially in the Republican Party, such us Gov. Sarah Palin and Gov. Bobby Jindal will step up to re-brand the party.
POLITICS is the game of creating a message where there is none. Striking a chord, more in perception than reality, of a monster in the darkness or a victimisation of a major voting block, and there you have it — presto, a winning campaign.
It has been done numerous times by "great" leaders and is practiced with great gusto by Ayatollah Khomeini, George Bush, Hugo Chavez, Kim Jong-Il, and many others. In the past three US elections, George Bush and to a lesser extent, John McCain, have been pushing Osama bin Laden and homeland security as the only test worth submitting oneself to.
However, during the US presidential election of 2008, there was a bigger demon whose shadow cast the fear of Obama out of the minds of most Americans. From the maze of Iraq and homeland security, immigration and welfare reform, health care reform and choice for abortion, campaign finance reform and earmarks in bills and global warming, it was the "It's the Economy, Stupid" slogan, carved by James Carville for Bill Clinton in 1992, which have set the tone for this campaign.
It was at this point that McCain the maverick senator who has fought his own party on issues such as immigration reform, earmarks and global warming, and who never had any fondness for subjects such as the budget and the economy, could have made his greatest and last stand.
He should have broken with a President with whom he had no loyalties, and a party which has always tried to alienate him, and tried to connect with the electorate. Surveys have showed that since the Wall Street crisis erupted in September, public anger about the initial $700 billion bailout by the exGoldman Sachs CEO turned treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, and its preceding mortgage meltdown, high oil prices, and credit crunch has pushed voters towards Obama.
It would have been a risky stance, given that there was still twelve weeks to go when the credit crunch hit the major headlines. McCain did try to keep his White House anointed image and try to meander through the maze but by then, the maze controlled him and he was not in charge anymore.
First, the members of the House of Representatives were not really involved in the negotiations about the bailout plan. Initially Paulson seemed like the right person to be on the job for such a crisis, but he could not sell it initially to the Republic base.
Second, there was tremendous unrest among voters against the plan. Many saw it as a betrayal of Republican principles, as a government intrusion into free markets. Democrats could not believe that highly paid CEOs and investment bankers were being bailed out.
Third, McCain, following Paulson, also communicated badly. He could have made clear that the taxpayers were likely to get much of the S700 billion back eventually. But he did not communicate it well. He took his time off and went back to Washington and made an effort to be at the center of the nego -tiations. However, it is interesting to note that the Democrats control Congress; and when McCain returned to Washington, they basically shut him out of the negotiations.
Fourth, he could finally use the debate to bring out the issues to save the plan and his campaign. But, he was beaten by Obama in the debates. He should not have let it linger to such a late stage in the campaign. That is where his initial stance of opposing anything going on in the beltway as a tactic to connect with the people's anger and frustrations.
Even today, Obama is using the "rearview mirror" ad. showing George W. Bush, in the mirror, in the same manner, a Osama voice tape four days before the last election pushed a slight George W. Bush lead into a healthy margin against the already doomed John Kerry.
This is the reason that as of writing, McCain is behind Obama in nationwide polls, and battleground polls show McCain behind in all states that he cannot afford to lose: Nevada. Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio, and losing Florida would signal big shifts in voter preference compared to the past 2 elections.
The handling of the economic crisis will probably cost McCain the presidency. It will cause a generational shift in Congress. Younger people, especially in the Republican Party, such us Gov. Sarah Palin and Gov. Bobby Jindal will step up to re-brand the party, while the Democrats will look to eight years under President Obama. McCain will go back to the Senate, shunned by an angry Republican Party and ignored by a Democratic Party. If he does not run for reelection from the Senate in 2010, he will probably be a quieter personally. The Bush Era will be over.
MV Mahfuz ur Rahman, a student of econonvcs and international relations from Johns Hoptons University, is a merchant banker and a free lance contributor.