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BNP weighs gains from Jamaat

Also assessing Jamaat success in 3 polls, impact of possible AL-JP alliance

Rakib Hasnet Suman and Rashidul Hasan
In a quite surprising move, BNP is now evaluating Jamaat's performance in the past three parliamentary elections and also its own gains from forming its electoral alliance with the religion based party, said BNP insiders.
The party is also assessing the possible impact on the December 18 parliamentary race of a probable electoral alliance between Awami League (AL) and former military dictator HM Ershad led Jatiya Party (JP-Ershad).
A group of former leaders of Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal (JCD), supposedly the former student wing of BNP according to the
party's recently amended provisional constitution, have been assigned to work on the matter under the supervision of Nazrul Islam Khan, joint secretary general of the party.
"We're trying to analyse what benefits Jamaat brought us in past elections," a former JCD leader told The Daily Star, adding that they are also trying to find out the possible impact on the electoral race of an AL-JP rival alliance.
Jamaat contested in the 1991 election independently and won 18 seats, but in 1996 it won only three seats as an independently contesting party, then in the 2001 election its winnings soared to 17 seats in the parliament as a component of the four-party electoral alliance led
by BNP, which formed the immediate past elected government with two cabinet posts going to Jamaat for the first time since the independence of the country.
Before the 9th parliamentary poll got stalled by the events of 1 \ 11 in 2007, Jamaat had asked for 50 constituencies to contest for as a component of the four-party alliance, but finally through negotiations it was allotted 35 constituencies.
Alliance insiders are saying Jamaat is now planning to ask for more than 50 seats in the election rescheduled for December 18 this year.
Meanwhile, whipped up by the electoral whirlwind an old debate
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regarding whether it is at all beneficial for BNP to have an electoral alliance with Jamaat has resurfaced again among the ranks of BNP with much prominence, according to the insiders.
Some BNP leaders with enough following among the rank and file think that it has never been that beneficial for their party to have an electoral alliance with Jamaat since BNP always won enough seats to form a government alone, with the only exception of the 1996 election when it failed to win a majority of seats required to form a government, but an alliance with Jamaat back then would not make a difference sinceit won only3 seats.
But some other leaders of BNP with equal followings do not even want to think along those lines, as they feel breaking their alliance with Jamaat is not an option their party should even ponder.
When asked about their gains from the alliance with BNP, Jamaat Assistant Secretary General Muhammad Kamaruzzaman told The Daily Star, "We formed the alliance with BNP to serve the national interest."
He, however, did not clarify what those national interests are or whether his party was benefited from the alliance.
JP (Ershad) won 35 seats in the fifth parliament, 32 seats-in the seventh, and 14 seats in the eighth parliament.
According to BNP leaders who are involved in the task of assessing Jamaat's past electoral performance, they will prepare a complete report on parliamentary constituencies with details of BNP's position in those, Jamaat's activities and position in those, and on whether BNP would be affected if ALis to form an alliance with JP.
They said they are also working on seventeen specific constituencies where BNP-led four party alliance candidates' electoral deposits for 2001 election were forfeited for getting too little votes.
"We even have information that the numbers of votes some of our candidates got were even less than the numbers of cancelled votes in
the areas," a BNP leader said adding that they are now trying to find out the reasons behind that.
According to the sources, a complete report of the assessment will be submitted to the party chairperson.
Four-party alliance will finalise its nominees for the upcoming poll after reviewingthe report.
BNP is also conducting a different survey through professional researchers to find out prospective competent nominees.
Moreover, Khaleda Zia assigned some of her close associates to carry out the same survey separately in order to get a clear composite idea about the party's and the alliance's positions in all constituencies.
After getting all reports, die BNP chairperson will start seat sharing negotiations with her alliance partners.